Daily Times

Pakistan’s policy-making capabilities have always displayed a lack of foresight, a dearth of planning and seem to be the result of reactive thinking rather than a well thought out strategic approach, which accounts for the possible repercussions also. Besides this, the accommodation of foreign influences and pressures leaves little room to pursue national interests. The weak and unprincipled governments that our non-system keeps throwing up therefore rule with a bundle of contradictions that create chaos, mismanagement and failures, which keep aggravating the miseries of the people and enriching the ruling classes.

These contradictions become quite apparent in the way peace talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have become messy. One must go back a little to see how and why the present mess was created. A belated All Parties Conference (APC) decided apparently unanimously to give talks a chance. From the outset, many felt that two parties were not on board and the shadow of a third party loomed large on the conference but all were prepared to go along with the charade for a while. The parties referred to are the US, the establishment, and the government.

As a result, four months were spent to confound and confuse, Hakimullah Mehsud was killed by the US, a church was bombed, other bombings took place and many innocent people were killed. The Taliban did not take responsibility for some of the attacks. The question became: who was trying to derail the talks? We kept dithering on whether to talk or not and then formed a committee of four, consisting of an ex-ambassador, two journalists and an ex-ISI man. This was a low-level committee with no serving officials, without any senior officer or minister and no clarity on the authority of this motley group, once again creating the impression that we were not serious enough. In a couple of meetings of the two committees nothing much was forthcoming and then came the unfortunate killing by a Taliban group of 23 soldiers of the Frontier Constabulary (FC) who had been in their custody since 2010. As a result, the talks are now derailed.

The Taliban claim that 16 of their men in custody in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and seven in Karachi have been killed by the authorities without trial or charges and that they had sent warnings to this effect in early February. They claim this was a retaliatory step. If this is at all true, one must say that if a government and its officers indulge in the unlawful killing of citizens in custody then how can we demand that an outlawed group not do the same? It is also worth asking why the Taliban would kill our soldiers so suddenly after holding them prisoner for more than three years, particularly when talks are taking place? Is it possible they were provoked so that an excuse could be found to end the talks? A denial has come from the establishment on the custodial killings claimed by the TTP but one must ask whether the credibility of those who have been misleading the Supreme Court (SC) for some years on the missing persons case can be good enough to be taken at face value in this case.

As predicted, the three parties that do not favour talks will have their way since the government decided to discontinue the talks, according to the interior minister. The defence minister has disclosed that, “permission has been granted to the army to act against terrorists”. Air strikes have taken place and military bulletins have informed us that many militants have been killed in Waziristan.

An impression is being conveyed that we will talk when we like and fight when we like. This policy of just retaliating with air strikes and half-measures is doomed to failure – either we fight to eliminate the TTP as a force or we talk peace. Any other approach will mean endless hostility with all its concomitant negatives and without any benefits.

Now to the hypothesis that the US is dead against any talks, which may lead to a peace arrangement with the TTP, as this is not in their interests. We already know that they have drummed it into our heads that this is “our war”. Can we expect our civilian governments, either Zardari’s or Nawaz Sharif’s, to withstand the joint pressure of the US and the military and take independent decisions? We should not forget that the prime minister has recently added new dimensions to our enslavement by accepting Saudi Arabia’s latest diktat. Therefore, peace talks will have to take a back seat.

Now that the pendulum is swinging back on the required track for a war to eliminate the Taliban, we need to analyse some of the consequences of such an action. The biggest question will be sustainability in terms of financial and other resources, tied in with the duration required and the size of operation needed. Knowing that NATO has not been able to eliminate the Taliban and al Qaeda after 12 years, with over 150,000 troops deployed and around $ one trillion spent, what do we think of our chances? With NATO forces already thinning out and a not-too-friendly government in Afghanistan and a porous border that troubles the US will now trouble us in reverse.

We must expect heightened violence in our cities as terrorists will want to attack our soft underbelly where it hurts most. The thinking that operations in Waziristan will lead to a reduction in violence within the country is faulty; the enemy will always go for your weakest part. The Afghan Taliban’s sympathies and support will be with the TTP. We should not take for granted that they are beholden to us; their goals are motivated by extreme religious beliefs and their agenda is for an Islamic Emirate in the region beyond Afghanistan.

We have been our own worst enemies, providing our real adversaries many a chance to weaken us and continue our devastation. One of the major reasons why it is important to paralyse Pakistan is its atomic power. A scenario similar to how Syria was forced to give up its chemical weapons can take place. It is happening elsewhere, then why can it not happen here?

When we look at it dispassionately, we must recognise that economically we are in dire straits. An operation of this nature will further disrupt the economy, create more debt and inflation and further impoverish an already burdened populace. We have suffered a lot as a nation over the last 35 years; we need to bring closure to this chapter, heal our wounds and strengthen our socio-economic structure, enabling us to look forward to the future. Above all else, our interests must be paramount.

Nobody is advocating surrender, nor is there the slightest hint of following any such route, but serious negotiations are the only sensible way to protect our interests. We must talk, persuade, cajole and understand their point of view. After all, why have they reached this extreme level of disenchantment with their own country? What has been our attitude towards the tribal areas and how has the pernicious Political Agent system oppressed them, denied their rights and impoverished them? Why is FATA’s representation in the National Assembly so rigged that every time they join up with whosoever is the ruling party? Why can we not merge FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and provide them all the rights, privileges and responsibilities available to the rest? After all, a government must accommodate the just demands of the people and reject what is either unconstitutional or unjust.

Petty and unprincipled politics are ruining Pakistan. Let us rise above to heal wounds and not inflict more injuries by following senseless policies of confrontation at the behest of others.

The writer is a businessman and a former chairman of the National Textile Foundation. He can be reached at fsumar@cyber.net.pk