Daily Times

Events indicate ominous signs of a deepening crisis, caused by the ever-increasing influence of Islamic State (IS), which now has spread from the Middle East, North Africa and into the Northern Caucasus in Russia. In one year, IS has gone much beyond occupying and holding large territories in Iraq and Syria; it has a large following through social media, addressing the youth in the west, with many joining the IS ranks. Important Iraqi cities and provincial capitals like Mosul and Ramadi continue to be controlled by IS. The Syrian government has weak control of over just a fifth of Syria with IS controlling all the important routes leading to Damascus. Only the Kurds in Iraq and Syria, reinforced by Iranian-backed militias and US air support, have put up meaningful resistance to IS. This is how well IS stands established. In comparison, governments in the Middle East and North Africa do not have enough confidence in themselves to contain IS and are aware that they do not have armies that can engage this determined enemy.
Recent events in Kuwait, Tunisia and Egypt are symptomatic, and reflect the level of capability of militants to strike at will. On June 27, IS affiliates struck two different places: a mosque in Kuwait and a Sousse tourist beach in Tunisia. At Sousse beach 38 people lost their lives, 30 being UK citizens, striking a severe blow to the Tunisian tourist industry, a significant multiplier in the impoverished economy. The suicide attacker of the Kuwait mosque, where 27 people were killed, was a Saudi national. It is significant how IS has infiltrated the youth in Saudi society despite strong internal security arrangements. The growth of extremism among the youth in the Middle East certainly requires more attention and resources than the Yemen war. Saudi Arabia needs to practice more caution as it is located next to the fierce battlegrounds of Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi army is not a professional army; there are not many expectations in the near future of it turning into a professional fighting arm, free from tribal and sectarian bias. Since June last year, the Iraqi army has either surrendered, retreated or been decimated by IS. On both occasions, it surrendered the latest US supplied arms, ammunition and military vehicles, enough to arm a few army divisions. The Syrian army is now battle fatigued after four years of civil war; it is too thinly spread in Syria and is facing difficulties in finding fresh recruits. The situation is further complicated by the growing sectarian schism. The militias fighting IS in Iraq and Syria are sectarian-specific. Amidst this air of mistrust, the task of containing IS becomes difficult.
Tunisia has witnessed two terror attacks since March. In Tunis, the capital, two gunmen attacked tourists in Bardo museum in March. Twenty two people lost their lives in this attack. In the two terror attacks since March, the terrorists had obtained training in Libya, in camps run by IS. A civil war in Libya certainly affords an opportunity to extremists to set up terror training camps inside Libya. About 3,000 Tunisian youth are fighting for IS in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Tunisia was thought to be the success story of the Arab Spring of 2011 but is now facing problems generated by a wave of radicalisation of the youth. The autocratic and corruption-ridden government of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, which was the first to fall in the wake of the Arab Spring, has left behind a legacy of corruption, inefficiency and lack of faith in the Tunisian state and government.
Two days after the attacks in Tunisia and Kuwait, Egypt faced a wave of terror. Hisham Barakat, the Egyptian prosecutor general, was killed in a car bomb in Cairo. This was followed on July 1 by a terror attack in northern Sinai. The attack in northern Sinai requires some serious thinking by Egyptian authorities as well as the international community. The operational part of the attack was well planned and coordinated, simultaneously striking different places by about 300 fighters from IS affiliates calling themselves Willayat Sinai or Sinai province. The number of militants involved clearly indicates the spread of militancy in the restive Sinai Peninsula. The attackers struck at about 12 military posts and a police station in Sheikh Zuweid, a town of 60,000 people, 15 km from Palestinian territory, with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. The militants arrived early morning on July 1, had enough time to lay explosives on the roads and warn the local population to stay indoors. The fighters remained in control of Sheikh Zuweid for about 10 hours. The Egyptian air force’s F-16 fighters and helicopters were deployed to counter the militants. Some 100 fighters were killed but there is no mention of civilians losing their lives either as collateral damage in air strikes or at the hand of the militants. The attackers were prepared to challenge and engage the Egyptian army. The level of readiness and initiative of the Egyptian security apparatus was rather questionable, exposing their motivation and professional ability. Since 2013, when President Abdel el-Sisi seized power, 600 people have died in terror-related incidents in Sinai.
The Middle East and North Africa faced a continuous long period of misrule. Independence from the Ottomans and the arrival of the 20th century just brought more misery, poverty, a renewed period of European colonialism, and denial of self-rule. Once the colonial powers left the Middle East and North Africa, the region faced a new era of rule by dictators. Suppression and denial of human rights continued in the name of self-styled nationalism. The notorious Tadmur prison in Syria, which has once again achieved global prominence after its capture by IS, was set up by the late president, Hafiz al-Assad. Tadmur prison housed opponents of Hafiz’s regime, who faced the worst torture ever known. The prison was demolished by IS after it seized Tadmur. Iraq suffered similar suppression under Saddam Hussein. The rule of the autocrat Hosni Mubarak was marked by corruption and suppression of dissent, leaving the Egyptian population alienated from the Egyptian state. Suppression was accompanied by vast corruption and impoverished populations. Militant organisations exploited these alienated and marginalised populations. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the rise of extremism in the Middle East and North Africa.
IS has announced a new affiliate or unit in the Caucasus called Willayat Qawqaz or Caucasus province. The restive area is providing Chechen fighters to IS, an estimated 5,000. Russia has been facing militancy in Chechnya since the 1990s. Due to this unrest al Qaeda was able to establish a Caucasus Emirates, which has claimed responsibility for some terror attacks within Russia. Chechen authorities have denied any presence of IS.
The signs of our times suggest that extreme militancy will continue for a long time in the Middle East and North Africa. The signs also suggest that there is little will or a visionary plan to fight these extremists. Time and initiative are fast running out for the established states and governments of these countries. Under the present circumstances, there are slim chances of a joint military strategy or a joint force to contain IS. The seizure of large territories in Iraq and Syria has helped IS form a firm base in Raqqa, Syria, giving IS a command headquarters from where to run almost a state or even a nation, to plan attacks and gain influence on a global scale.
After the fall of Ramadi and Palmyra, President Obama stated that there is no “complete strategy”, as it requires commitments on the part of the Iraqi government. The formation of a strategy or joint force to fight IS is hampered by tribal and sectarian considerations. The policies of various governments in the Middle East and North Africa have rendered their populations alienated from the state and governments. The youth have little or no hope of improving their lives. For their survival the countries in these regions require liberal economic reforms where people have a fair and equal opportunity to participate in the economy. The vision of governments and political compulsions in these countries do not provide an atmosphere for liberal economic reforms. Such are the signs of our times.

The writer is a former member of the police service of Pakistan. He can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com