Daily Times

The historic deal between the P5+1 countries and Iran, giving Tehran sanctions’ relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme, will impact regional politics in various ways. At the global level, the deal ends Iran’s international isolation. It resets the country’s vexed relations with the US and, by implication, the rest of the west. The changing scenario at the global level will have knock-on effects at the regional level as well.
In the context of the Middle East, the Iranian position will be further strengthened. With the fear of potential US aggression against Iran gone, the latter is better positioned to re-orient itself to the world in general and the Middle East in particular. In Iraq, Iran is already allied with the Iraqi government in fighting against Islamic State (IS). Here, the US’s, Iranian and Saudi goals are compatible, though for different reasons, in defeating the self-styled IS. Nevertheless, unlike Saudi Arabia, Iran has immense influence on the government in Baghdad. On the Syrian front, although the US and Iran are not on the same page, their interests are not colliding either. The US’s primary interest was to deny Bashar al-Assad’s Syria from acquiring nuclear weapons, which was effectively ensured when the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) removed all nuclear installations from the country back in June 2014. Since Washington is not much concerned about who should rule Syria, it gives Tehran the opportunity to throw its weight behind the Assad regime. This leaves Riyadh in a precarious position in Syria. For one, the rebels are too stubbornly divided to expect any meaningful victory from them. Secondly, they also consist of anti-Saudi elements such as IS and al Qaeda. On the other hand, failure to topple the Assad government means losing the historic opportunity of getting rid of an Iranian ally in the Saudis’ backyard.
In Yemen, the deal will boost the Houthi rebels’ position against the forces of deposed president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. The Iranian position will be bolstered against that of Saudi Arabia’s not only in Yemen but also in Lebanon in the form of Hezbollah and Hamas in Palestine.
For Israel and Saudi Arabia, the deal is a partial gain. The major security threat that Israel had from Iran was the possibility of the latter to become a nuclear power. That fear has been subsided almost effectively. President Obama has stated that the deal was built on verification — not on trust — by UN inspectors to ensure Iran’s compliance to the agreement. There has also been a sigh of relief from the Saudis who could not stand the prospect of Iran developing nuclear devices. The fact that Israel and Saudi Arabia are upset about the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran stems from the fact that the deal thwarts Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for a period of 15 years only. Additionally, since Iran has the capacity to export as much as 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, it will definitely improve its economic standing once sanctions are lifted. Resultantly, strong Iran translates into bolstering the position of its Middle Eastern allies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Palestine and Lebanon.
A tough time is awaiting Iran. The possible implication of the deal on regional states will be such that it will draw Turkey closer to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab monarchies. In 2011, after the launch of the Arab Spring in various Middle Eastern countries, Turkey, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood formed a third camp, which vied for regional influence with Saudi Arabia and Iran. As expanding Iranian regional influence rattles Turkey as much as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the odds are that the trio will join hands together to prevent Iran dominating the region. It does not matter that Israel will not be a formal part of any anti-Iran camp; Tel Aviv shares common interest with Sunni Middle Eastern countries to contain Tehran’s bid to dominate the region. In practice, this would mean the bifurcation of the Middle East into two camps: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — comprising Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar — Turkey, post-Morsi Egypt and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) competing for influence with Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hamas in Palestine, Houthis in Yemen and Hizbollah in Lebanon, with Israel on the same wavelength as the former camp.
There will be no easy winners of the conflicts in the Middle East. Syria and Yemen, the bloody proxy theatres of war, will serve as festering wounds. Perhaps we will witness more violence in the Middle East in the months ahead. The emerging chaos will only benefit IS and its allies who will capitalise on weakening the central administration.
Pakistan will be affected by the deal because Iran does not want to alienate Pakistan to help it drift further into the Saudi camp. The Iran and P5+1 nuclear agreement is a historic opportunity for Pakistan to reorient itself. Islamabad’s decision not to dispatch troops to Yemen on Saudi Arabia’s demand sent a strong message to Riyadh and Iran that Pakistan would not necessarily do Riyadh’s bidding. The incumbent government should initiate diversifying Pakistan’s foreign policy options. It should strike a balance between Riyadh and Tehran in a way that it does not take sides with any of them in the worsening conflict in the Middle East. Iran is important not only because it is an important regional player but also because we can benefit from its tremendous oil resources. Additionally, good relations with Iran may help Pakistan have leverage over India in the South Asian context. If the government uses its cards wisely, Pakistan may most benefit from the emerging scenario in the Middle East.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Quetta. He can be reached at fkakar85@gmail.com or followed on Twitter @mughtian