Daily Times

The late Professor
Dr R M Naib used to tell us, “Change is the only constant. Different species must adopt and adapt to the continuous process of change to survive. Those who cannot simply vanish, become extinct.” States, like any other species, must adopt and adapt to their changing environments or be ready for extinction. The geo-political environment of South and West Asia is undergoing a fundamental change both internally (regional and state level) as well as internationally. These changes provide opportunities and challenges to all regional states. This essay focuses on Pakistan.
The major elements that define regional geo-political changes are: a) The US/NATO drawdown from Afghanistan (region), b) the turmoil in the Middle East, c) the US’s policy of accepting China out invest it and play a major role in the region but also limit it, d) the Iran nuclear deal and sanctions free Iran, e) a Chinese assertive policy towards a regional economic zone with increased role in Afghanistan and heavy investments in regional transport infrastructure (with a major chunk in Pakistan), f) the continued religious, extremist violence in the larger Middle East (from Saudi Arabia to Central Asia), g) the rise of Islamic State (IS) and its gradual replacement of al Qaeda and the Taliban, h) oft-contradictory alignments like China Pakistan at the same time with China, Russia and India as well as China India and Iran, i) the changing US-Pakistan and the US-India relations, j) peaceful elections and transfer of power in Afghanistan, and k) President Ashraf Ghani’s overtures and Pakistan’s response leading to expectations/declarations of a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s Afghan counter terrorism policy and Pak-Afghan relations.
The US/NATO drawdown from Afghanistan should not be compared to the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan or even the US’s withdrawal from Vietnam. The US has partially achieved what it came for and can achieve more without being directly engaged in day-to-day fights, making it more affordable both materially and politically. The Chinese assertive regional policy, driven by heavy economic investment, accompanied by political and security elements, in the region stretching from Myanmar to Central Asia, including Pakistan and Afghanistan, is not seen as a loss by the US. Rather, the US and China have much more in common than is acknowledged. Both strongly agree with denying any space to terrorists, which means more of, if not only, Af-Pak territory. The US, while not negative about an increased Chinese role, would not want it to be the only regional power. Herein comes India. However, the US looks at India as balancing China rather than confronting it, thus diluting the Chinese status. On Afghanistan, India, China and Russia have more in common than is presented. Iran also belongs to the club of these three on Afghanistan and terrorism. With the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, which will see a sanctions’ free Iran, most of the fundamentals on which Pakistan bases its regional policy will be put to serious test, providing both opportunities and challenges.
The BRICS Conference in Ufa, Russia shows something that needs to be carefully understood rather than blaming anyone. The Prime Ministers (PMs) of India and Pakistan met and declared their resolve to fight against terrorism and resolve their bilateral issues through negotiations. They met with clear prodding from China, Russia and the US. The big three told them bluntly that they must mend their affairs and focus on terrorism. Pakistan had no choice but to go along and keep mum on Kashmir. Keeping in mind the Pakistani military role in its security policy, one can safely deduce that PM Nawaz Sharif did not go it alone. Pakistan’s whole establishment was on board for the meeting, the agenda and the declaration. The heating up of the situation on the Pak-India border in its immediate aftermath shows the continued existence of forces opposed to any change in Pakistan’s security policy. It appears that there may be differences on many points but, internationally, there is a consensus on countering the rising tide of terrorism. Significantly, for Pakistan, China is at the forefront of this global consensus, increasingly more so in this region. It has differences with the US and India on many other issues but, on terrorism, it stands with them.
In the wake of the Army Public School, Peshawar tragedy in December 2014, Pakistan made a very public attempt to resolve issues with Afghanistan, facilitated by President Ghani’s policy of finding peace in Afghanistan through negotiations and agreement with Pakistan rather than with the Taliban. Pakistan declared action against all terrorists. For the interest of this write up, that action was also to target those using Pakistani territory for terrorist activity anywhere, especially Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s expectations of Pakistani help in facilitating peace with the Taliban and denial of the use of Pakistani territory against it, however, have dwindled within months. Serious concerns and doubts have been publicly expressed about Pakistan’s declared commitments in this regard. The ‘high point’ was President Ghani saying: “Pakistan is engaged in undeclared war against Afghanistan.”
Pakistan is central to the emerging regional geo-political map. This centrality provides it with both challenges and opportunities. Those who find interest in the new geo-politics (China being one such state, being its main architect and with heavy investments) may not take a lighter view of the hurdles in its path. Pakistan can be the hurdle or a facilitator. To be a beneficial part of the change, Pakistan has to show credible and visible action by denying Pakistani space to all types of terrorists, moving forward on relations with Afghanistan, trying to decrease and gradually mend its relations with India and developing more substantial relations with Iran. It must also understand that movement on one is not possible without the others.
Even though one notes some attempts at change, somehow Pakistan appears unable to make that change. It appears Pakistan’s external environment is pulling and pushing it towards change and being a beneficiary of the changing regional situation but its internal situation and alignment of forces are too strong to let go. These pulls in the opposite direction are tearing the Pakistani state and society apart.

The writer is chairman of the Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar