Daily Times

Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu immediately after the signing of the Iran and P5+1 nuclear agreement declared it a “stunning historical mistake”. Israelis have gone one step further by pressing US lawmakers in Congress to block the deal, with the Israeli ambassador to the US, Ron Dermer, meeting privately with a group of about 40 house Conservatives. The most influential pro-Israel group in the US, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), is also putting all its weight behind stopping this deal. It will deploy about 300 lobbyists on Capitol Hill to try to convince lawmakers, especially undecided Democrats, to vote against the deal, according to officials in the pro-Israel camp.
The current Israeli anxiety over the recent Iran nuclear deal is a reminder that the Israeli leadership may be in a paradoxical situation and is overreacting. But we have to remember that agreement over Iran’s nuclear programme marks the end of an era. The 20 years’ long effort to strip Iran of any ability to dabble in nuclear science or weapons has officially failed. The only other option left is to engage them in talks and negotiate their nuclear weapons ambitions. Just imagine what would happen if Congress overrides Obama’s veto and kills the deal. No one seriously disputes that the sanctions regime would quickly collapse. Russia is already planning its new business deals with Iran and the Europeans are not that far behind. The idea that a tougher US could, by itself, force better terms is a dangerous fantasy. With rejection, we would get the worst of both worlds. However, with the deal, Iran would of course get much of its oil money back but with the most intrusive inspections in history (24/7 monitoring of its nuclear facilities), 98 percent reduction in uranium stockpiles and the many other provisions that sharply reduce its existential threat to Israel.
Israelis should do some introspection first before feeling threatened by anyone in the region. Israel’s enemies have learned that Israel is strong at conventional warfare. After many embarrassing defeats at the hands of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), they have realised that fighting a frontal, tank-to-tank, battalion-to-battalion war is no longer their best option; Israel’s military might is simply superior. Full-blown Israeli commitment is tantamount to the destruction of enemy armies and that is why they will probably not initiate such action. Any state actors that have the capacity to arm, train and deploy large conventional armies against the state of Israel are tied up right now. Israel can live with whatever happens there. Israel is the strongest state in the Middle East in every aspect — militarily, strategically, economically and diplomatically. Even if Iran tested a nuclear weapon tomorrow, it would take years to refine it into a warhead for a missile. Then it would encounter The Arrow, a joint US-Israeli anti-missile system. Iran would suffer Israel’s doomsday second-strike capability. So, even if everything goes south, even if the critics of this deal are right, Israel can deal with it. Iran’s leadership is rational; it knows that Israel has unlimited reprisal capability, which is an Israeli euphemism for the country’s second-strike nuclear arsenal. Iran also realises that nuclear confrontation with Israel can put the whole Persian civilisation at risk.
Iran’s domestic political equations also have to be taken into account before reaching any conclusion about the Iranian ‘threat’. In Iran, there is a regime and there is a government, and we have to make a distinction between them. President Hassan Rouhani does not make any decisions without the instructions or approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei is now distancing himself from Rouhani and letting him take the blame for anything that looks like compromise on Iran’s part in the agreement. If we want a moderate and responsible Iran, we have to worry about moderate President Rouhani and his government. Any isolation and sanctions on Iran will only strengthen the hardliner regime.
With the integration of Iran into the global market after easing out of sanctions, Iran will once again be an open economy where it trade its oil and benefits its citizens through relations with the west, with the full realisation, as stated in the agreement, that violations could set it right back to where it is now with its economy in ruins because of sanctions. The only way to make Iran a responsible state actor is by getting it integrated into the world order and its economy opening up for everyone so that Iranians are always aware of the cost of their misadventures.

The author is a columnist for the Middle East and Af-Pak region and the editor of geo-political news agency ViewsAround. He can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com