Daily Times

The term economic conman is better understood when we look at what is being claimed and what the figures show. According to our finance minister, Pakistan is on its way to becoming an investor’s haven and a progress model. Every media interview and statement highlights how the GDP growth has increased, how the deficit is coming down, how load shedding has been controlled, how inflation has disappeared and how tax collection has improved. Massive full page advertisements in print and electronic media show the miracle the economy is going through due to the master strokes of this government’s economic policy. To back these claims, the IMF, Moody’s and Forbes are quoted. The media runs tickers and headlines, and talk shows quote them frequently to show this economic turnaround.
When we look at the Pakistan Economic Survey and the State Bank reports published by the government itself these claims seem empty and untrue. However, in a country where almost 50 percent people can barely sign their name properly, these reports hold no value compared to the jingles of khushaal (well-to-do) Pakistan that they see on television. That is why we see the public desperately waiting for jobs, textiles and the steel industry association giving SOS appeals to the government, traders going on strike over further taxes and people on the streets against load shedding. The government has formed a very effective strategy of glossing up the economic decline: impose taxes and price hikes without a debate in parliament and in an indirect manner that the common man cannot understand, fudge a few figures and remove a few hefty charges to give this impression of declining deficits and then bombard the media with advertisements showing projects that will bear results near the next elections. To substantiate this let us see a few major economic performance areas.
The government claims that in line with the falling international oil prices it has reduced petrol prices. This they claim with a bang on the media. However, they reduce prices on the one hand and on the other hand cleverly increase sales tax on petroleum products without even debating and discussing it in parliament, which is a violation of the Constitution. The details of this are hushed up and dismissed in press conferences, leaving the common man thinking that it is a matter of no consequence. Even when taxes are imposed they are specifically designed to hit the poor and exempt the rich. Kerosene oil — the poor man’s fuel — was taxed and high octane that is for luxury cars was exempted. The ignorant public would not be able to pick up this economic gimmickry. Similarly, the conflict between traders and the government on withholding tax is another discriminatory act that the trading community is rejecting. The government under IMF instructions wants to broaden the tax net, which is fine. However, instead of putting the burden on small fish the government needs to catch the big fish to give the message that it is a genuine tax reforms drive rather than one that transfers the burden to smaller traders. According to government statistics, Rs 665 billion tax exemptions have been provided to the who’s who. These are the privileges given to the already privileged. Why are they not being taxed to share this burden?
Another economic window dressing used by the government is to quote a couple of foreign business magazines and rating agencies, and claim that Pakistan has been declared an investor’s haven. Bloomberg and Forbes have been quoted as putting their bets on Pakistan’s market. Firstly, most of these agencies rely on what the IMF says about the state of the economy. The IMF relies on how ruthlessly and obediently the Pakistani government is willing to draw blood with heavy price and tariff increases. Energy prices, including electricity and gas tariffs, are increased on their command. Once the IMF is safe with its return of loans it gives the green signal for another tranche and when that signal goes out in the market the other rating agencies follow. On the contrary, never has Pakistan been so bereft of foreign investment as in 2015. According to State Bank figures, the foreign direct investment (FDI) has decreased by a whopping 58 percent to hit a new low. But again the average person is not really interested in this economic deception as he is just not capable of deciphering the rotting reality below the glossy packaging.
One of the biggest examples of the figure fudging done by this government is the unemployment figures’ clash between the ministry of finance and ministry of planning. Ishaq Dar proudly claimed that unemployment dropped to six percent while Ahsan Iqbal claimed that it had risen to 8.3 percent. Again this was hushed up. One just has to look at the state of industries like textiles and manufacturing, and their condition is the biggest evidence of mass unemployment. The All Pakistan Textile Manufacturers Association (APTMA) announced a strike against the government’s news that circular debt would be paid by increasing tariffs on the textile industry. Another empty claim by the government was that budget deficit had been decreased but it was more of an accounting gimmick of placing almost Rs 500 billion under a separate heading of holdings. But just by placing it in a difference category it does not mean that we do not have to pay it. The textile industry is targeted to pay Rs 70 billion higher bills to settle this circular debt. APTMA claims that almost 30 percent of the units have shut down due to these crippling financial costs. However, billions of rupees advertisements are showing the infrastructure development in the country. As much as 67 percent of the economy depends on textile or textile related industries. Exports have not even reached last year’s $ 25 billion, leather exports are down 28 percent and the minister of finance proudly claims that the economy is back on track.
Recently, in Sweden, Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif again very confidently said that education was his top priority and he was making special efforts for it. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey, for the first time in decades literacy rates have decreased by two percent. Education has never been and never will be the top priority. It is only the ignorant who can believe what the government claims and not understand the figure jugglery being done. With an educated populace, their mastery in claiming something else and doing something else will not work for long. An unaware mind is the best breeding ground for selling expired promises.

The writer is secretary information PTI Punjab, an analyst, a columnist and can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com