Daily Times

The recent diplomatic activity on Syria is intriguing. Russia, Mr Assad’s most powerful supporter, has forged new ties with Saudi Arabia, his bitter foe and a major funder of Syrian rebel groups, and has brokered a meeting between Syrian and Saudi intelligence officials. Even amid high tensions over Ukraine, there was recent diplomatic engagement between the US and Moscow on the vexing question of how to end Syria’s brutal civil war, which has left more than 250,000 dead, fuelled the rise of Islamic State (IS) and helped to radicalise would-be terrorists around the world. Now, Russia is at the centre of a new flurry of Syria focused diplomacy that has followed the Iran nuclear deal and might even involve a new round of direct talks between Washington and Tehran, Syria’s staunchest ally. However, these diplomatic engagements have also been followed by increased fighting on the ground by all parties. The fighting gathered pace recently, intensifying on major frontlines, including near Damascus where a government air strike on a market place killed 100 people, and in the southern city of Deraa where the government is battling a new rebel attempt to seize the entire city. All are areas of vital importance to President Assad, who with help from his regional allies, Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, is seeking to shore up control over western areas of the country after losing much of the rest to groups like IS.

A marked escalation in Syria’s conflict could be a sign the warring sides are trying to strengthen their bargaining positions in case a flurry of diplomacy leads to negotiations. Despite fighting hard on the ground every party in the Syrian conflict knows that there is no military solution. They just want to negogiatite from a position of strength in the talks. There have been a number of diplomatic initiatives, some of them secretly involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia, which together can end this war aimed at trying to find a political solution to the crisis in Syria. In Qatar, talks were held on Syria between the US secretary of state, the Russian foreign minister and the Saudi foreign minister in Oman, one of the few countries in the region with strong ties to both Iran and the Gulf States. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem held talks after meeting with Iranian and Russian officials in Tehran. The visit has created talk of a possible meeting between Saudi, Syrian and Iranian officials in Muscat. In Riyadh, furthermore, reports have emerged of a landmark meeting of senior Syrian and Saudi intelligence officials. In Moscow, there have been a number of high-profile visitors, including the Saudi foreign minister and a number of Syrian opposition leaders. The Iranian foreign minister visited a number of Middle Eastern and South Asian countries to promote a new peace plan.

What has led to this sudden flurry of diplomatic activity? First of all, it is the realisation that the situation in Syria is simply unsustainable and that there can never be a military solution. However, the recent Iranian nuclear deal has meant that Tehran is now able to play more of a constructive international role and it can certainly contribute to a political settlement in Syria, which it seems to want to do. The hard fact is that the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria all have a common enemy: IS, which is a direct threat to them all and the entire region. The fact that IS controls half of Syria is extremely worrying; without a political settlement in the country, the jihadists will never be defeated. Another key factor is the weakening position of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad, who is losing territory and military strength to a variety of opposition groups. Western and even Gulf States fear that groups like the Nusra Front and IS will fill the void if the regime of President Assad falls and that will be the worst case scenario. So, starting a new peace talks initiative in Syria is high on the agenda of everyone.

Syria clearly represents a failure of the international community, in particular the UN Security Council. The situation is indeed bleak: four-and-a-half years after the civil war more than 250,000 people have died, including at least 11,493 children with more than 1.5 million are believed to have been wounded. Over 12 million Syrians have fled their homes: 7.6 million are internally displaced while the rest have escaped to neighbouring countries. Syria represents the worst refugee crisis since World War II. Considering all these sufferings of the Syrian people, now at least peace should be given another chance. All the parties in the conflict and their allies should put in sincere efforts to promot talks and negotiations as this is the only way to end this conflict, which is taking a very high toll on humanity.

The author is a columnist for the Middle East and Af-Pak region and the editor of geo-political news agency ViewsAround. He can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com