Daily Times

With every passing year, the ferocity of the climate-induced disasters in Pakistan is on the rise. From ‘super-floods’ of 2010 to extreme heat-waves of 2015, climate change is asserting itself in unprecedented ways. Similar to this pattern of recent past, current year is no exception. Pakistan is in the grips of extreme flash floods caused by ‘above average’ torrential monsoon rains. Several areas in Baluchistan, Sindh, South Punjab and KPK are bearing the brunt of these raging waters.

According to National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), more than 900 people have been died and thousands have been injured. Farmers have been robbed-off of thousands of acres of vital crops and scores of livestock by the natural-yet anthropogenically exacerbated- calamity. Floods have forced people to leave their demolished houses with nowhere to go.(NDMA, 25 August 2022)

Given the frequency and intensity of the climate-related problems and plethora of scientific evidence, it becomes clear that climate problem is not going to go away in the near future. More and more floods, wildfires and heat-waves are expected in future. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that limiting warming to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial level will be a “herculean task”(Tollefson, 2018). UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2019 warns that “the world is heading for a 3.2 degree Celsius rise in temperature over pre-industrial level, even if countries meet their Paris Agreement commitments.”(UNEP, 2019)

All this brings home the idea that it will take a lot of time and serious mitigation efforts to limit warming; however, we will continue facing extreme events in the meantime. This presents a serious policy question that whether policy makers should focus on mitigation or adaptation efforts. If mitigation is necessary to limit warming and prevent ecological disasters which are in the offing, adaptation is required to build resilience for the times when such catastrophes take place. The irony is that the developing countries, which are among the least emitters of carbon and more vulnerable to ecological apocalypses, have prioritized mitigation over adaptation or have only paid lip service to adaptation related policies.

One would not be surprised to know that Pakistan emits less than 1 ton of carbon per capita as compared to global average of 4.5 tons and South Asian average of 1.5 tons. However, Pakistan’s strategy to fight climate change has, so far, only been limited to mitigation efforts which include reducing carbon emission. National Disaster Gain Country Index ranks Pakistan the 27th ‘least ready’ country in the world to address the impacts of climate change.(Pakistan, 2021) Our lack of adaptation capacity is visible in the current raging floods in the country. To make matters worse, the country has not prepared a comprehensive adaptation plan as yet which indicates countries’ misplaced priorities in fighting climate change. No doubt, mitigation is important but, for countries with small emissions and highest vulnerability, adaptation becomes all too important. Adaptation can ensure people’s survival by bringing crucial behavioral and institutional changes to withstand calamities.

Similarly, though the country has finally committed to prepare a National Adaptation Plan by 2023, the ambitious mitigation targets overshadow the insufficient adaptation-related projects in the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution report 2021 submitted to UNFCCC. Therefore, capacity building of the people and the institutions is indispensable in the fight against climate change. Where Mitigation can save us from the severe impacts of climate change in the long-run, adaptation can minimize human and material losses caused by the violent climatic events.

The whole issue boils down to the point that if Pakistan needs to focus on adaptation, what are the strategies which it can adopt in this regard. First of all, it needs to complete its National Adaptation Plan and launch it as soon as possible because as the time goes by, people’s suffering will increase. This plan should be a comprehensive document which should identify the vulnerabilities and disaster prone areas of the country. Secondly, there is a need to adopt technological solutions for the climate-sensitive sectors of the economy such as agriculture. The climate-caused water shortage is exacerbating; hence, technologies must be employed for the efficient and effective utilization of water in agriculture. Only sustainable availability of water can save us from the looming threat of food insecurity.

Thirdly, rampant poverty in the country enhances the vulnerability of the poor masses in the face of climate change. The government should work to uplift the underprivileged sections from the menace of poverty. Provision of social security and risk insurance can be helpful in this regard. There is a global consensus that diminishing poverty can reduce climate vulnerabilities.

Fourthly, there is a dire need to improve fiscal management in Pakistan so that resources can be saved for the climate adaptation fund. Pakistan’s NDC states that Pakistan needs approximately $ 7-14 billion annually for adaptation efforts(Pakistan, 2021). This huge amount can only be funded by enhancing domestic revenues when there is a reluctance on the part of international donors to fund adaptations efforts of the developing countries.

Last but not the least, masses and a significant chunk of leadership in Pakistan is still not convinced of the fact that changing climate is a reality. They take such catastrophes for granted and believe that man cannot do much about them. There is a need to educate such people about the gravity of the problem so that they can participate in and contribute to the adaptation efforts.

The writer is a graduate of Government College University.