Daily Times

A lot has been said about Asif Zardari’s statement aimed at the PML-N and Sharif government. However, going through the discussion rarely has anyone raised pertinent questions while analysing it and those who have leave few key relevant dimensions. To me, there are issues that remain paramount. First is the core message of the statement. Second is whether Mr Zardari thinks Nawaz Sharif is a culprit in PPP-centric ‘revenge politics’. Third is what he wants to achieve out of this. Then there is the broader issue of what the implications are of this statement. So, let us try to analyse them one by one. And answering them will help us answer whether the PML-N is next or the operation will remain centric to the PPP and MQM.
Barring my sympathies for the PPP and its progressive and liberal politics, it seems Mr Zardari and circumstances have painted him in the corner where he is left with few options. That said, Mr Zardari raises a few valid issues in his statement. The statement is an indictment of the PML-N, particularly Mr Sharif. Two ministers, one provincial and one federal, that Mr Zardari has mentioned are accused of wrongdoings on behalf of the Sharifs themselves. Then he mentions the operation against his party alone and the actions that are aimed at crippling the Sindh government. The broader message is hard to miss: Mr Zardari feels that the province of Sindh has been singled out and victimized, and that its provincial government is not allowed to function and govern independently under the roles defined under the Constitution. This perception bodes ill for the federation.
Going back, this desire to control Sindh is not new for the PML-N. As Cyril Almeida mentioned in a recent article, in another context, Punjab has everything except Karachi and this desire to control Karachi has been central to the aspirations of the Punjabi capital, represented by the PML-N. In the last two decades, changing economic and regional realities have made Pakistan’s south the engine of the country’s economic growth and opportunities. With rich mineral and energy resources, coupled with a coastline, the economic future of Pakistan will be centred in the country’s south. It cannot be a coincidence that in three terms of the PML-N, it has been focused on destroying and rebuilding the power realities of Sindh. During the recent term such action has put the two central political realities of Sindh, the MQM and PPP, in the corner. And if things continue the way they are, the combined agitation of the two will have disastrous consequences for the federation.
That takes us to the next question: whether Mr Zardari believes Mr Sharif is at the centre of this revenge politics. Just when people within the PPP are divided on this and analysts are in unison that he is not, in my opinion, Mr Zardari, of late, is convinced that everything is happening at the behest of Mr Sharif. One of the reasons I have mentioned above, where the collective interest of a dominant section of the Punjabi elite has a desire to control Sindh. Needless to say, the first talk of governor rule in Sindh started around May last year, way before the National Action Plan (NAP) and all, with Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan et al leading the charge and it died temporarily because of the situation arising out of the PTI/PAT sit-ins. The other reason is that many believe the PML-N has a soft corner for militants and, when post-APS it became necessary that an operation BE launched against militants, therein emerged the Karachi operation and drive against corruption. This has diverted attention from the countrywide operation against the Islamist militants, particularly in Punjab. So, in this calculus, the PML-N seems to have equal, if not more, incentive to target the PPP-led Sindh government and MQM. One has to be mindful that many in the powers-that-be want more and more control of the country’s polity and this operation serves their purpose well. This may be at odds with Mr Sharif’s interests but if history is anything to go by, interest converges on turning the federation into a union and then the two parties can fight it off between themselves as to who controls Punjab more. This is precisely why I believe that when push will come to shove, no such action will be taken against the PML-N for it has considerable sway in the Punjabi capital and administration, a sway that has let Mr Sharif off-the-hook post the 1999 coup.
As to what Mr Zardari wants out of it, first he wants to highlight provincial discrimination to rally the provincial support-base. Next he has opened up an avenue to play the victim card across the country if the PML-N and others are not nabbed the same way. Then, whatever the media and educated, well-off classes may think of the politics of reconciliation, many influential quarters at home and abroad that have interests in Pakistan’s stability, think it necessary for the country’s survival. Mr Sharif relied on many of them for his ascent to power and they remain central in managing the economy and his international standing. Mr Zardari wanted to highlight to them the untrustworthiness and confrontational nature of Mr Sharif, portraying himself as the most bankable reconciliatory figure. This is precisely the reason why the PML-N has responded swiftly to Mr Zardari’s statement pleading innocence, at the cost of being blamed for Zardari’s corruption.
As for the broader implications, for now Mr Zardari wants to play his role on a national level. Many in the PPP feel that through a combination of media trials, accountability courts and above all security threats the party has been denied access to Punjab for decades. But, all said and done, Zardari is a politician. So, if at some point he feels squeezed enough, he will turn to Sindh. We need to be mindful that those who engineered the last elections have engineered a mandate that divided the country on provincial lines with precision. Let us be mindful and not let them succeed. The way forward is inclusive, fair political opportunity for all and creating a state that is fair and equitable to all political units and entities.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik