Daily Times

The leaders of different factions of
the Muslim League are discussing modalities to launch the Muttahida Muslim League (MML) bringing in all factions of the Muslim League, except the PML-N. The agenda is to launch a struggle against the rulers. All set to go, the MML will prop up the candidacy of the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) chief, Pervez Musharraf, as most likely to lead the alliance. The launch was interesting because of some politicians who graced the occasion. Among them were Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Hamid Nasir Chattha, Ghous Ali Shah, Dost Mohammad Khosa and Sardar Attique Ahmed. Also providing star power to the occasion was the former governor Punjab, Sardar Zulfiqar Ali Khosa, and Rashid Qureshi. Pervez Musharraf being brought up to the stage makes the MML look better.
The promise of an exciting new political venture loses much of its bite when only political parties with poor popularity are seen as being involved. As things stand, the latest group of MML politicians will have their work cut out for them to show where this promised excitement will come from and what differences they can make in changing corrupt practices and the political system. One of the first questions that will be asked tomorrow is whether they intend to go the whole hog and establish a political party or muddle through with an informal alliance. What is certain is that they hope to be involved in the formation of the next government and to influence its policies. In politics, as elsewhere, strength lies in numbers. Because of that, a pledge of support from all the political leaders would be more attractive in terms of loyalty than friendship. On the plus side, individually they are strong-minded, socially committed politicians, likely to retain their seats. On group issues, however, they differ in dynamics.
That begs the question on whether it would make Musharraf look good especially to the voters. That question can also be asked of the other MML politicians who graced the occasion. Serious issues are hounding Musharraf, the most notable being the court cases against him. The critics surely did not frown upon seeing many old politicians being associated with his party but the PML-N may think that their rivals are aligned with an agenda that may cause an issue. History, however, tends to show a different picture.
Issues that make or break an alliance are always political. Whom the alliance politicians are supporting at the national level does not factor much in the reckoning by voters. On the other hand, funding and other forms of support from a major political party with nationwide reach matter much in the conduct of the campaign by party candidates. It is this kind of dynamics that makes the risk of being associated with a disputed politician not worth taking.
“This is the way the world ends,” wrote T S Eliot in the final stanza of his oft-quoted poem The Hollow Men: “Not with a bang but a whimper.” And thus, it appears, will be the way the new MML alliance finally reaches its sell-by date. Not with the dramatic split that has always seemed inevitable given the broad spread of philosophies and ideologies that are accommodated in the alliance and as preparations are being made to resurrect the country from the jaws of corruption, but with a whimper of conflicting class interests, denouncements, angry statements and endless litigation.
Alliance politics and the way the Muslim League’s political parties have become aligned will never be the same again whatever happens next. The bottom line is that the MML’s bid to co-opt Musharraf’s leadership in the manner that the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) party’s executive has been persuaded to refrain from leading its policies and practices in the interests of the country are very timely. The National Action Plan’s (NAP’s) pressures are just too great for the MQM and if the Rangers had not drawn a line in the sand, the alliance was doomed to suffer the same fate as the Charter of Democracy (CoD).
The PPP has been decimated by the politically correct Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) after its leaders failed to heed warnings that their credibility among ordinary members had been undermined by their perceived indulgence in corruption and recent National Accountability Bureau (NAB) cases. The same actually also applies to the MML and, to a greater or lesser degree, most of Musharraf’s other affiliates. In general, the PML-Q has historically gained from the maintenance of a cosy relationship with the governing party, although how much longer they would have continued in the current economic environment is debatable. However, the PML-N would have seen little benefit from giving the PML-Q a blank cheque that is now digging in their heels.
It is unclear whether this development will have much effect on the outcome of the 2018 local elections although the 2023 national election could be another story. However, the MML’s alliance power will inevitably rock on to the shop floor in the same way that the PTI’s rise affected the PPP’s popularity, and this should be of concern to Imran Khan, Nawaz Sharif and other political leaders alike. We are told that Pakistan is riding high and that 2018 could be the year that this unlikely alliance of the MML synchronised with the PTI may be brought to the political surface, winning a clutch of majority seats in parliament. But the more the public knows about them, the less it is likely to want to vote for them. Therefore, preparing the voters for change at the right time is vital. Some of this is due to the incompetence and incompatibility of the two and some of it will be a by-product of personalities and ideology.
Ironically, many Muslim League warriors are not really Muslim League leaders. They are just politicians. It is not just that the party has become a bolthole for every opportunist politician who thinks alliance is necessary but their central philosophy is itself far more selfish than it is futurist. Political circumstances may be kind to them. But, at the same time, the role of NAB in exposing dubious financial transactions has resonated strongly with the accountability threat, and this suggests a new culture. Whether the MML can capitalise on this situation by forming like-minded negotiating groups is uncertain. Post-election arithmetic will provide the answer.

The writer is a professor of Psychiatry and consultant Forensic Psychiatrist in the UK. He can be contacted at fawad_shifa@yahoo.com