Daily Times

A fictional depiction of true facts, Exodus by author Leon Uris is a moving account of the struggle of Jewish refugees escaping persecution and discrimination in Europe to get to Israel (the Middle East) after World War II. Sixty years later history is repeating itself but in the reverse direction. Migrants from the Middle East and Africa are flooding into Europe across the Mediterranean and overland by different routes. More than a quarter million refugees from the Middle East, mostly from Syria, have reached the Greek Islands on their way to Europe. Europe has no coherent response to the scale of this migration; in fact, the EU is badly divided over how to manage this humanitarian crisis.

Multiply that manifold and spare a thought for Pakistan being home to one of the world’s largest concentration of refugees, and that also for more than three decades. The first wave of Afghans started trickling in during the early 1980s with the Soviet invasion, and the next wave escaped the civil war that started in real earnest after their exit. The single-mindedness of the Taliban regime’s hardline version of Islam sent more refugees fleeing, and finally the US-led coalition invasion after September 11 forced hundreds of thousands to cross over the porous international border. Pakistan has been host to more than six million Afghan refugees at one time. Compare that to the alarm bells ringing throughout the EU with only 300,000 on Europe’s doorsteps! Even today there are more than 3.5 million refugees in Pakistan, 1.7 million refugees are registered in camps and almost 1.6 million scattered throughout the towns and cities of Pakistan. Several million Afghans have become Pakistani citizens; they now own businesses and real estate. A vast, posh sector in our capital of Islamabad houses mostly Afghans. We also have our own migrants in Europe and the US. Other than professionals who have worked hard to make a living, they made plenty of money looting the national till and are mostly based in posh villas and luxury apartments in Dubai and London.

Refugees add to the general instability of the local community, triggering a social problem: the deepening of local resentment. Those scattered all over Pakistan still remain unregistered, and among them (not all) are criminals, extremists and terrorist elements. They pose existing security threat. They have an impact on renewable natural resources (cutting down of trees, cutting foliage to feed livestock, etc) and have had a drastic long-term effect with land becoming unfit for even the most basic forms of agriculture.

Refugees must go back to their home country. The repatriation of Afghan refugees under the auspices of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has been going on since early 2002 but for everyone repatriated another has replaced him (or her). Successive Pakistani governments have been unable to act to hasten their return. Lacking concrete measures (and the will) to repatriate the refugees, Afghanistan, notwithstanding the increase in Taliban attacks within the country, shows that the conflict does not appear to be ending any time soon. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) today provides a level of security within Afghanistan as well as economic opportunity, contributing to relative stability in the capital and lessening of the number of migrants. The loss of Kunduz, a key northern provincial capital, has been a great demoralising setback for the government of President Ashraf Ghani. After days of bitter fighting, Afghan forces have managed to retake Kunduz but not without massive air assistance from the US as well as stiffening up by US special forces on the ground. According to the UN, as many as 6,000 civilians were reported to have fled the city because of escalating violence with reports of extrajudicial executions (including that of healthcare workers) and abductions.

With the planned exit of all foreign troops drawing closer, Afghanistan will become more vulnerable to Taliban insurgents. With the performance of the Afghan National Army (ANA) during the last few years as a true indicator, there is every reason to be pessimistic about the Afghan military being able to hold its own against a determined and resilient enemy after the exit of international forces. With more than 6,000 Afghan soldiers killed between 2003 and 2014 and with about 4,000 desertions every month, there are signs they may disintegrate in the same manner they did after Soviet forces exited Afghanistan. The fighting will rapidly trigger large-scale chaos and panic; in a bid to escape and save their lives the people will make a beeline for the porous Pakistan-Afghan border, only a few will turn towards Iran. Iran has never allowed the bulk of refugees to leave the border zone of about five miles. Is Pakistan prepared to check and prevent the new refugees from entering? With existing refugee camps in Pakistan already a safe haven for terrorists and drug dealers, even if a few thousand refugees were to enter Pakistan in new waves, there is no telling how many terrorists or insurgents could be among them, all in all a nightmare scenario for Pakistan.

One of the things to remember is that if there is increased Taliban activity in and around Kabul most of the refugees will be from that city. This place has a large concentration of anti-Pakistan elements and they are vocal about it. As it is most of those who badmouth us have a second home in Pakistan. That should be our acid test: we should never let such elements into Pakistan.

Pakistan must now plan ahead for the worst; it is better to be safe than sorry. A mechanism must be worked out to prepare for the next wave, to prevent new Afghan refugees from entering Pakistan, allowing only those cleared after diligent screening. Perhaps some of the other countries in the vicinity of Afghanistan can be persuaded by the UNHCR to do their bit and allow refugees to come in. What about Kabul’s bosom friend, India? Modi should take about 100,000 or so refugees. Oh, I forgot: the Muslim Afghans eat beef.

The international community has shown in Europe why Pakistan cannot tolerate more illegal migrants on its soil. The US and west must “do more” bringing back refugees living in Pakistan by creating conducive conditions for their sustainable reintegration in their homeland. Pakistan should move away from its liberal open-door policy and close our door to any further refugees from Afghanistan.

The only way to stop the intending exodus is to launch Operation ‘Closed Door’.

The writer is a defence analyst and security expert