Daily Times

Elections are interesting events. They are perhaps the only time when the masses — intoxicated with the Kool-Aid of participation and representation — flock to the polls to get their voices heard. It is an ongoing debate as to how much individual votes matter in a polity and whether or not the secret ballot ends up lining the votes towards the median policy position but, despite all that, elections determine the winners and losers in the system and also impart legitimacy to the democratic setup.

The recent by-elections in Punjab were made out into a battle of good and evil, where the competitors were using lyrical allegories that are best suited to medieval times. The ensuing political hubbub was a sight to behold though and, if anything, greater mobilisation efforts by parties are leading to an increase in voter turnout. As expected though, the NA-122 by-election has returned the PML-N candidate, Ayaz Sadiq, to his seat in parliament, much to the chagrin of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). All the showboating, the rhetoric and chest beating came to none in the end, and the PTI could not salvage a win to save some face after last year’s dharna (sit-in) debacle and the unfavourable decision by the judicial commission earlier this year. The ruling party won, end of story; maybe now we can all go back to our routines.

But wait, there is more. Not only was the margin of victory in NA-122 relatively thin (some 4,000 plus votes, give or take) but the ruling party lost the electoral battle in both the other constituencies in PP-147 (Lahore) and NA-144 (Okara) to the PTI and an independent candidate respectively. Keeping this in mind, the reaction from the ruling party should be more of relief than elation. As soon as the reverie subsides, the minds behind the PML-N should get together and mull over such dismal results in major Punjabi constituencies.

The fact of the matter is that the composition of the electorate is rapidly changing, and the constituents that stand to gain most from the policies of the PML-N are being given a tough time by the emergent politics of the PTI. As such, then, it is only a matter of time before the PTI has the requisite numbers behind its back to make its way to parliament as the majority party. Granted, such a landslide will not be possible in 2018 when the next general elections are held but it must be a cause of concern for the PML-N nonetheless, provided re-election to office is its raison d’etre.

This is also becoming more and more relevant because if the sheer numbers do not do it for the PTI, then the under-handed tactics of the PML-N surely will. The masses flocked to the PML-N’s side in the wake of the dismal performance by the PPP in the 2008-2013 period but the current government is not setting the bar any higher. The obvious nepotism and neglect towards other cities besides Lahore will eventually overshadow the glitz of mega projects and, at that point, the PTI will start looking like an awfully worthy alternative.

However, above and beyond individual constituencies, the state of our democracy is not too promising either. Of course, the political parties have realised that they have to provide lip service to the concept itself and induct some semblance of participation for the masses but beyond the electoral exercises that are mired in controversy, the system does not elicit much confidence towards helping the disadvantaged and the marginalised. Right now, democracy in Pakistan is more like a compromise between elites who have agreed to share the ruling space amongst themselves, with no hope for the representation of the non-represented.

Another aspect worth mentioning is the position of arbiter that has been willingly awarded to the armed forces. Those of us bemoaning a slide towards yet another break in the democratic setup are already wary of the lost civilian space and now if small-scale by-elections cannot be deemed legitimate without the stamp of approval from Rawalpindi, then we must prepare ourselves for the inevitable.

In this regard, it is worrisome to see how a long-term electoral reform process has been neglected in favour of short-term gratification. It is an established fact that the beneficiaries of the system, i.e. the ruling party, would never ever seek to reform a process that puts it in an advantageous position. In such a situation, it is the sole duty of opposition parties like the PTI to force the ruling party’s hand towards inducing more transparency and accountability into the electoral process. But seeing how myopic the PTI has become in the face of successive failures, it remains to be seen how the party will ever be able to fill the shoes of effective opposition.

Lastly, the way in which electoral results are handled these days has made the process of voting itself a divisive and polarising phenomenon. The refusal to accept defeat does not bode well for the survival of democracy in Pakistan and the way the losers always cry foul will only further divide the electorate.

This is not a bad thing per se since all functioning democracies should have a competitive component built-in but, when taken to extremes, it can provide serious hurdles in the way of national progress. A polarised society proves awfully hard to appease, in which case policymaking becomes a nightmare. We are already seeing how little consensus can be generated over the rules of the game and the institutional setup in Pakistan, and if a split electorate starts challenging the wisdom of the elected representatives, conflicts can then only be resolved by more powerful institutions with the willingness and capacity to use violence.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations