Daily Times

After the by-elections in NA-122, which handed over a victory to the PML-N candidate, Ayaz Sadiq, against his rival, Aleem Khan of the PTI, many things can be said about the elections of 2013 with confidence. First, the mandate of the PML-N stands authentic in the previous elections and its strength in the National Assembly (NA) represents its true power. Second, the PTI did not have moral or legal grounds to sail into the capital last year and the motives for the 120-day sit-in in the red zone were a lot more sinister than what was disclosed to the people. Third, not every electoral irregularity can be exaggerated and vilified as a part of planned rigging. This difference, for the peaceful future of our teetering democracy, is very important to understand, although I doubt that the PTI, as long as it is losing the elections, will ever attempt to grasp the concept. However, once it wins, the election commission will be declared neutral, independent and ideal!

Having said that, the PML-N cannot ignore the rising popularity of the PTI in Lahore; it is a daunting reality that has to be reckoned with. The former cricketer, who has turned out to be much more aggressive and ruthless in the field of politics than he ever was on the cricket ground, is closing the gap at break neck speed for the top spot. Indeed, I will not be surprised if he surpasses the popularity of the Sharif brothers in the coming years. Right now, in my opinion, the balance still tilts in the favour of the PML-N. Besides that, Shahbaz Sharif has got two-and-a-half additional years in Punjab to recapture lost ground. Whether the Punjab-based Muslim League will be able to seize that opportunity or not still has to be seen.

How much has the PML-N lost in its popularity? On average, it beats its opponent by a comfortable margin of 25,000 to 55,000 votes. This is what noticed in the last few general elections but not this time. The lead with which the former speaker has defeated his opponent is just 4,000 votes. Something has dramatically changed over the last few years we have to admit. Some supporters of the party, however, would like to trivialise it as a blip. I disagree, I say to them: numbers speak louder than words!

The question is: why is the PTI’s popularity rising in Lahore even with the blunders that the party splatters everywhere? And why are the ratings of the PLM-N dipping? Shahbaz Sharif, generally speaking, does not have the reputation of a corrupt executive; rather he is considered to be a hard working politician, a strict administrator who knows how to get the job done. Most of his projects, including the Metro Bus in Lahore, were completed on time or in some instances even before the target date. Then what lies behind the people’s disapproval?

If the same question is asked of the PPP — why was it swept out of Punjab in the last elections? – people like me would not hesitate to provide a whole list of reasons, as the answer is both easy and obvious. The party, in its last tenure, had built the reputation of being corrupt to the core, either disinterested in the welfare of the voters, too incompetent to bring an effective governance model or both. Besides being hard working, Shahbaz Sharif’s character, on the other hand, is not marked by such stains. He is by and large clean. To some extent, we can say that the PML-N sits in Islamabad today because of the hard work of the Chief Minister (CM) of Punjab in his last term.

When you put forward the question of the PML-N’s slipping popularity, the PML-N supporter will fall for one of these simple and easy explanations, namely: “People get tired of voting for the same party again and again, they like change. The PTI claims to bring that change. That is why.” Second: “Every government loses its popularity in the middle of its term because it cannot deliver on all its promises. Let the PML-N complete its term and you will see a jump.” Third: “The main leadership of the PMLN — the CM and the Prime Minister (PM) – did not participate in the election campaign whereas the complete echelon of the PTI zoomed in on the constituency. Try running a campaign without Imran Khan and then tell me how many votes the PTI gets.” And the last: “By-elections because of the small size of the constituency cannot be used as a marker to evaluate the party’s popularity. For that, we must rely upon the results of the general elections.”

All of these points hold some credibility but I think the problem sits much deeper and if neglected it can become an existential threat to the political career of the PML-N. To explain further, let me first start with the PPP. The party of Zulifkar Ali Bhutto has been wiped out from Punjab yet it still survives in Sindh. It does that not because the party is still popular in the rural areas of the province or because the ordinary folk can lay down their lives for Asif Ali Zardari as they would have for Benazir. It survives only because the people of Sindh do not have a Sindhi alternative. In Punjab, the story unfolds differently. People here have a local alternative, and it may be a better one if not worse. So, unlike the PPP, if the PML-N let the rug slide under its feet for too long, it may not have a place like Sindh left to hang on to. In a clever move, the PTI has unleashed an impressive and aggressive campaign in the heart of the land of the PML-N. If it wins, it may emerge as the only party of Pakistan trampling over both the PPP, MQM and the PML-N in less than 10 years — a real tsunami.

The writer is a US-based freelance columnist. He tweets at @KaamranHashmi and can be reached at skamranhashmi@gmail.com