Daily Times

In a clear sign of shifting global dynamics and the concomitant need for new geo-political alliances in a rapidly changing world, Pakistan’s courting of Russia is on. The historically terse relationship has recently started to thaw as Pakistan belatedly emerges out of foreign policy stagnancy rooted in the permutations of the Cold War era. The latest indicator of this renewed and mutually beneficial association is the state-to-state agreement signed between Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Russia’s Minister for Energy Alexander Novak wherein Russia has agreed to build a $ 2 billion dollar North-South gas pipeline that would stretch 1,100 kilometres from Karachi to Lahore. The pipeline will have the capacity to carry 12.4 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year and will connect terminals in Karachi with those in Lahore. Jubilant officials hail this pipeline as a game changer because they claim that until now no suitable mechanism existed to distribute gas around the country but once the pipeline is functional, imported gas will be easily transported and provided. The pipeline’s reach and the substantial volume it can carry has raised hopes that the pipeline will provide a credible solution to the deepening energy crisis by helping to enhance the generation of electricity to the tune of 3,600 Megawatts, while also serving as a kick-starter for the floundering CNG sector and providing a boon to industries. There is also talk of involving China in this project in some capacity at a later stage, in a further show of Pakistan’s increasing confidence and reliance on its more immediately located partners to come to its aid. In any case, there are embryonic plans to eventually merge this Russian built pipeline with the LNG pipeline in the western half of Pakistan being built as part of the Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Doing so would give Pakistan an unprecedented fuel network and control over the allocation of its resources, and such a move therefore makes eminent sense. Some caution though must be injected into the overwhelmingly buoyant proceedings since the project, set to be completed in three phases, has a long way to go and the expected completion in 2020 may turn out to be wishful thinking as delays, ballooning costs, security concerns and other unforeseen obstacles are routine in such ventures and this project is too important to be compromised by impatience.

For Pakistan, the benefit of this deal is obvious enough as the easily transported gas will be much cheaper and more efficient than the fuel oil being used currently to produce electricity. Such a reduction in price and increase in production will mitigate a worsening crisis and ease the noose around the public’s neck. Furthermore, Russia as the largest oil and gas producing country has plenty of technical expertise to contribute, which would further help eliminate Pakistan’s energy shortfall. For Russia, the deal provides its state-owned energy corporation Rostec ownership and control over the management of the pipeline for 25 years, and not only does it seek to recoup substantially from this investment, this move helps it strengthen its influence in the affairs of the region. With Russia and China gaining in strength and confidence in the global arena, the relationship amongst the world powers is set to undergo a shakeup as the unipolar dominance of the US now has a definite expiry date. To assert and secure their growing status, Russia and China are on a diplomatic offensive to win over new allies. The move by Russia and Pakistan to strengthen ties comes after Russia’s traditional ally in the region, India, has moved closer to Pakistan’s traditional main backer, the US. Both countries woke up to the fickleness of international relations and have realized the need to seek new, non-exclusive alliances rather than rigidly sticking with outdated attitudes and risk being vulnerable. First the impasse with Pakistan was broken when Russia agreed to an arms deal, now the relationship has progressed to the energy sector. It is hoped that this emerging alliance does not suffer from the reversals of the past and continues to foster results in a mutually advantageous economic relationship. *