Daily Times

The current crisis in Ukraine has offered an insight into the great powers’ interests, vision, and power-balance management among the states. Such crises come as an advantage to unveil their underlying weaknesses, strengths, and agendas. They also provide countries with an impetus to evaluate their long-held policies and update them keeping in view the current geopolitical scenario of the world. The present crisis in Ukraine intensified when Russia deployed its military forces near the Ukrainian border earlier this year. Russia has deployed almost one hundred and fifty thousand troops as per the global media sources. The United States and Russia are cautious about getting involved in a confrontation. However, the crisis in Ukraine is expected to have lasting consequences for the international security state.

Full-scale Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has completely ruined many Ukrainian cities and one-quarter of the citizens have become refugees. Russian attacks have escalated to the entire civil population and civil economy of Ukraine and are aimed at converting the industrial heartland of Ukraine into parts of Russia at the economic and political level. Because of the complicated scenario and the great powers’ involvement in the conflict, it remains unclear whether there is a possibility for a diplomatic resolution or not.

Being the superpower, the United States is the most significant factor in the Ukraine conflict. The United States’ inability to fully commit to Ukraine’s defence is the most worrisome. Though the West invoked the threat of Russian aggression, still the United States and NATO have already made it clear that they will not send any troops to fight Russia. Nonetheless, Russia has recently accused America of direct involvement in the Ukraine War. United States has provided Ukraine with dozens of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers having a range of 80 kilometres. With the help of these rocket launchers, Ukrainians have started undermining the Russian military capability. United States, NATO, and the EU have been putting sanctions against Russia along with providing military aid to Ukraine.

It can take almost a decade for any peace deal to work and eradicate the mistrust between Europe and Russia

China has remained restrained from explicitly criticising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though it violates the Chinese five principles of peaceful co-existence. Beijing has stressed these principles for decades; comprising mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, peaceful co-existence, mutual-non aggression, and equality and mutual benefit. It termed Russia’s moves as unexpected but refrained from condemning them. China also directed its media outlets to not post anything against Russia and also abstained from voting on the UNGA resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war is also likely to push Russia to align itself closely with China and can even encourage it to leverage its economic, military, and political influence in the region.

Russia still hasn’t tried to disrupt the supply lines funnelling military aid from the West; neither interrupted the regular visits of EU and NATO leaders to meet Ukrainian President Zelensky. Candidate status was granted to Ukraine for EU membership after the visit of French President Macron, Italian Prime minister Draghi, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Ukraine conflict has the problem of being treated as an object of power management by external actors rather than an autonomous entity responsible for its fate. Hence it seems likely that the settlement terms concerning the Ukraine Conflict will be laid out by the external powers rather than the Ukraine government itself. Great power games and politics have always intensified the conflicts and resentment among countries. The disintegration of the Soviet Union led to a variety of problems; including ethnic & religious conflicts, territorial disputes, and resource disagreements. Instead of getting resolved, the majority of the conflicts have escalated over the last thirty years.

The Ukraine war has evolved into a major economic and political conflict between Russia and the Western countries with a long-lasting impact on global stability and U.S strategy. It now seems almost certain that Ukraine will not be able to regain its eastern territory and the ability to recreate an industrialized area will be limited because of potential threats from Russia. It can take almost a decade for any peace deal to work and eradicate the mistrust between Europe and Russia, particularly between Ukraine and Russia. Also, Russia will not be able to keep up with its former levels of economic links with the West and will tilt to Asian countries for trade. Russia’s alienation and declining technology and economy will make it dependent on China.

Another important implication these crises are going to generate is the significance of nuclear weapons to protect one’s strategic sovereignty and autonomy against a potential aggressor state. This has negative consequences for denuclearization and nuclear proliferation. States will now consider nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantor of security. In addition, other implications could include investments in technology, development of military resilience, weaponisation of the financial system, cyberspace, and economic empowerment to deter any potential aggressor state.

Certainly, national strength is the crucial element to effectively safeguard the national interests of any state. The Ukraine conflict is going to create changes in the international system, power dynamics, interstate relations, and the whole global order. Alliances will remain a key feature of great power competition in the future. States will always actively seek partnerships and alliances that could enhance their integration into multilateral relationships. Participation in the exclusive economic and trade partnerships and applications for NATO and EU memberships will be considered tools to enhance security.

The writer is a columnist and a researcher and can be reached at aneezaamaham@gmail.com