Daily Times

Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif is on a working visit to Washington DC, which everyone is claiming to be a critical visit with regards to the Pak-US relationship, a relationship that has seen many seesaws since the end of the Cold War. It is now said to be heading towards another period of chill. This chill comes at a time when the world in general and the region in particular is undergoing major changes and is marred by massive turmoil. Both countries need to do their bit to avoid a breakdown in relations or else the repercussions will be disastrous for both of them as well as for the region.

Both sides are to be blamed for this state of affairs. On its part, the US’s immediate concern is Pakistan’s alleged duplicity while dealing with extremist outfits. The US blames Pakistan for not only a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan but also for protecting outfits likes Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) and the Haqqani network. The US’s position in this regard has swung from outrightly blaming Pakistan for supporting terror activities in Afghanistan through lower level officials in the administration to seeking Pakistan’s help in bringing militant elements to the dialogue table for a workable solution in Afghanistan (talk of duplicity). The Americans’ second concern vis-à-vis Pakistan is its ever-expanding nuclear programme. It will be unfair to deny that without tacit US overlook, Pakistan would not have developed its nuclear programme. However, with changing global realities, the US is concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear programme on two counts. First is it serving as a catalyst for proliferation to the neighbouring Middle East and, second, the emergence of non-state terror outfits makes them fear the nukes falling into their hands.

With regard to these two issues, the size of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal does not match its economic muscle and this, in Washington’s assessment, makes Pakistan’s nukes vulnerable (I believe the Chinese assessment would not be different in this regard). For the issue to go away permanently Pakistan will have to find a way to balance its economic might with its nuclear might or it will be vulnerable to pressure. The third issue concerning Washington is the ever-increasing role of the military in decision-making under Mr Sharif. The issue is more of a philosophical nature and fits well with the US agenda of weeding out the state within the state phenomenon across the globe for a more manageable world. The details and reasons behind this can be a distraction from the topic but, for this same reason, the US administration under Obama has taken a series of steps to make security and intelligence agencies more accountable to civilian authority while empowering them at the same time. If concerns on the part of the US are legitimate and worthy, concerns on the part of Pakistan are even more powerful.

The US fails to realise and appreciate its relations with Pakistan, spanning seven decades. It fails to realise that Pakistan has been part of more alliances with the US than any other country in the world and that for the US too it has rarely been in more alliances with any other country than Pakistan since World War II. The US’s pivot towards India and disengagement from Pakistan after the fall of the Soviet Union left a vacuum in Pakistan that was filled by Chinese and Middle Eastern influence. That has changed the dynamics of the relationship and the influence the US lost then cannot be retrieved. In fact, from having military, intelligence, commercial, financial and diplomatic influence in Pakistan, the influence has shrunk to the financial field only. With the emergence of regional markets, this trend is likely to accelerate. More importantly, through its half-baked, ill-planed misadventures in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, the US is gaining a reputation of being a harbinger of perpetual chaos to the region and is developing a trust deficit real fast. Its confusion vis-à-vis China’s rise has led it to court India at the expense of Pakistan and it is fast losing the balance it had between its regional ally and a non-aligned country. I do not know whether the US is analysing the news coming from India in recent months but if and when it does, it will realise that the news is indicative of an unravelling that will pale Afghanistan or Syria in comparison. Pakistan faced its rot in the 1980s and what we are seeing since is the aftermath. But a closer look shows the country has been undergoing the reversal of this rot for a decade. In the case of India, the rot towards extremism and chaos is just beginning and because of internal dynamics is likely to be way more explosive. Leave aside the regional impact of happenings in India, the happenings themselves put in question the wisdom of US policy decisions.

But coming back to the need for US relations with Pakistan, the US needs closer relations with Pakistan for stability in the Middle East, for peace in Afghanistan but, above all, to have a bankable ally in a world where the US should be seen as accommodating, not confrontational to emerging Asian and global power realities. When the Americans will move out of their confusion about containing China versus accommodating China, they will need Pakistan as an ally on their side to be better placed in the region. Above all, the Americans need to realise that their scolding and cut-and-run attitude makes them to be perceived as an unreliable ally; relations among sovereigns can achieve a lot more if carried out in a more accommodating way. For its part, Pakistan needs to realise that it needs to focus on its economy, integration in global markets and on severing ties with non-state terror outfits. It is the only way it can enhance its acceptability as a responsible regional, nuclear power. But, above all, both the US and Pakistan need not be foolish enough to weaken the most vital regional alliance where both of them are central forces for peace and stability.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik