Daily Times

The recent siege and takeover of Kunduz from Afghan forces showed a political victory over the Afghans and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF); in fact, it was seen as an indication of strategic failure on their part though it happened in a period of less than one year of the drawdown of US troops and allies’ forces. Most alarming is the fact that only 500 Taliban fighters drove over 7,000 Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) out of Kunduz in a very short period time — less than a day — without any sturdy resistance. This, in a broader spectrum, raises questions about the success of the US and Afghan forces in the coming future. Many analysts believe that the fall of Kunduz has unveiled many lies about the promises of delivering stability, security and an inclusive peace process.

This takeover also proves that the Taliban are still highly effervescent and that they can easily capture many other major cities. The northern province of Kunduz has always remained a stronghold of the Afghan Taliban. The Kunduz incident dramatically erupted at a time when US military strategists were exploring a variety of options about keeping troop presence beyond the withdrawal deadline of 2016. However, Afghan security officials claim that the Taliban insurgents have been pushed forward and that parts of Kunduz city have been cleared. The northern Kunduz police Chief Quasim Jangal Bagh claimed that the clearing operations were still underway and that the Taliban were being pushed forward to the Takhar-Kunduz highway and the Dasht-e-Archi district of Kunduz.

The vice president of Afghanistan, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, also claimed that the government was aware of the plans of the Taliban to attack Kunduz, Faryab, Helmand and Kunar provinces; he further claimed that the people in these areas should not think that the government was careless and that obviously it is ready to prevent any further penetration in other areas in the coming future. During his recent visit to Russia, General Dostum emphasised that Russia should help by proving military equipment such as attack helicopters, long-range mortars and other latest weaponry to the Afghan security forces in order to counter Islamic State (IS) and Taliban militants.

Previously, Taliban insurgents assaulted a prison in Ghazni province and released more than 350 most wanted Taliban insurgents and commanders, and as a consequence further aggravated the situation, bringing serious concerns about the prevalent security situation in the country. For some reasons, the partial failure of the Afghan strategy is also because of the US and its allies who had been largely relying on their alignments with corrupt warlords, drug lords and corrupt politicians whereas the current unity government under President Ashraf Ghani is still divided on many issues.

The matter of peace in Afghanistan in the near future seems obscure because of the breakdown in the peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the Taliban demands of a complete withdrawal and the revoking of all military and security accords with the foreign troops in Afghanistan. The other side of speculation is also based on the hypothesis that the US and its allies are not all that serious about the complete withdrawal of ISAF forces and, therefore, the ‘dragging on’ policy will hardly bring complete peace to Afghanistan. Most importantly, the Afghan government and the Taliban have been engaged in a process of peace talks this summer and another round of talks under the mediation of Pakistan was also expected whereby it was strongly believed that the two sides would reach a consensus about a seizefire and develop confidence building measures (CBMs). Unluckily, the process was also halted with the revelation of the news of the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omer and consequently the leadership crisis among the Afghan Taliban. It is worthwhile to note here that a delayed peace process between the two parties will further fuel the ongoing tension in the country and, of course, will encourage some other militant groups to make their place in the country. As an immediate neighbour, for Pakistan it is also the need of the hour to play an effective role to revive the stalled peace process.

The writer works for the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad and can be reached at nasurullahsvi@outlook.com