Daily Times

After nearly a month of conducting daily air strikes, Russia is beginning to reveal its political calculations and strategic intent in Syria. A new round of talks in Vienna on a political solution for the Syrian conflict is being conducted in which Russia is about to play a major role. There is a growing sense in Moscow, and among diplomats and politicians in some countries in the Middle East and the west, that Russia has a better chance than most to combine its increased influence over Assad with its military muscle in Syria’s skies to broker a deal to end the Syrian conflict. The hard reality is that right now Russia has more chances than any other country to settle the political process for the Syrian conflict. But it is not about Syria only — Russia has big ambitions in the whole Middle East and entering into the Syrian bloody war on the side of Bashar Al Assad was just a small part in Russia’s new grand strategy for the Middle East. For a long time Russia has been frustrated with the US’ strategic dominance over the region. To establish the Kremlin also as a potent force in the region President Putin chose the Syrian theatre to show his muscle.

The Obama administration has been weak and passive in the face of Russian intervention, basically allowing Russia to set the terms of a proposed solution. Now Russia, step-by-step, is increasing its influence in the whole region by forging an alliance with every important player in the regional arena. Let us have a look at some recent alliances the Russians have made in the region.

Israel has discovered Russia and its growing sphere of influence in the region, and that realisation is what sent Netanyahu to Putin a month ago bringing about the visits of high ranking Russian army officers to Israel. It looks as though Israel does not want to be left outside the equation now that Russia is becoming increasingly involved in Syria, especially since Iran is solidly placed on the other side of the equation. That is why Israelis have set up a joint mechanism with the Russians.

The Iraqi government apparently believes it was not receiving adequate assistance from the US and EU to ward off the Sunni Islamic State (IS). It has turned to Moscow for support. Now Iraq is receiving Russian assistance under an intelligence and security cooperation agreement.

The Arab world’s most populous country, Egypt, is actually supporting Russia’s actions, notwithstanding the fact that Saudi Arabia is Egypt’s top paymaster. The reality is that, although most Arabs do not like what Russia is doing in their region, they do admire the way Mr Putin seems able to pinprick the Americans. Egypt has sought Russian military assistance after being turned down by the US.

The Syrian civil war has dramatically improved ties between Russia and Iran. It could lay the foundation stone of Russian-Iranian lasting ties in the region. Tehran also sees Moscow’s resurgence as an opportunity to ensure its own lasting influence in the region. Iran has been at odds with Sunni Saudi Arabia, which, along with other Arab countries, is concerned about Shia Iran’s outreach.

But by returning with military force in the region, Russia has acquired some Middle Eastern enemies as well. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are furious with Mr Putin, largely because Russia’s intervention now complicates both these countries’ strategic objectives in the region. However, Turkey needs Russia more than Russia needs Turkey and Mr Erdogan is only too aware that all the Russians need to do is start supporting the Kurds in Syria to make Turkey’s strategic situation a misery. The Saudis have also been muted in their criticism because they too hope for an accommodation with Russia. So, in that way, the Russians have neutralised its critics in the region. But one important thing that the Russians have overlooked in this power play is that by entering the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts with their own troops and advisers, Russia is adding fuel to the lure of jihadism rather than toning it down. Dozens of Saudi clerics are already reportedly issuing edicts for Sunnis to fulfil jihad, a pillar of Islam, by fighting not only Alawites and Shias but also the Russians as heathens just as they did successfully in Afghanistan during the 1980s. The Russians would not desire a repeat of the Afghan jihad in which it bled a lot and left Afghanistan in disgrace.

The writer is a columnist for the Middle-East and Af-Pak region and editor of the geo-political news agency ViewsAround. He can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com