Daily Times

As anticipated — but quite unnecessarily — Pakistan has become the primary target of India’s wrongful power projection. However, its unexpected resolve to stand up to bullying has begun to tell on India’s composure and has caused quite a commotion in South Block. A review of India’s anecdotal trajectory vis-à-vis Pakistan is instructive but indicative of the destructive direction it is taking. Let us consider certain recent developments to elucidate this point.
Modi invites the Pakistani Prime Minister (PM) to his oath taking ceremony apparently as a decent gesture besides other regional heads of state; an unusually ostentatious event by India’s own populist ethos. It was a precursor to many other events to come including an expensive gold threaded suit worn by Modi to welcome US President Obama and strange selfies in Beijing. Against the norms of hospitality and courtesy, Mr Modi reads out the riot act to the Pakistani PM and his foreign secretary throws out of the window whatever was left of good sense during her press briefing the same evening. The Pakistani delegation returned home red faced to scathing domestic criticism. Yet Pakistan agreed to hold foreign secretary level talks in its quest for normalisation of relations. But that was not to be. India cancelled the talks on a flimsy pretext. Its diplomatic hubris was rising just as the US and its mates were falling head over heels to woo the newest dame in town. Pakistan continued to plead for talks. World pressure began to build up. India relented and invited Pakistan for a meeting on the sidelines of the Ufa summit. Once again, what a dismal performance that meeting was. The event appeared to be stage managed to create certain effects. The Pakistani delegation was ushered in, like humble subjects, as if in the court of a king.
It was diplomatic discourtesy at its possible nadir. Mr Modi kept standing majestically at the other end of a 40 feet hall while the Pakistani delegation slowly moved through an indifferent line up of Indian diplomats on both sides. Skilful Modi had his way and a strenuous joint communiqué was read out at the end of the talks. For the first time during formal talks between the two countries the Kashmir dispute was omitted from being mentioned, at least in the final press statement. Despite this unworthy treatment it was agreed to hold National Security Advisor (NSA) level talks. Soon after, Mr Doval, the Indian NSA, invited Sartaj Aziz, the NSA from Pakistan, to reach New Delhi for a follow up meeting.
Simultaneously, the Indian media was unleashed and a barrage of accusations and demands started to pour out from New Delhi. The Indian army’s persistent live fire violations of the Working Boundary increased phenomenally, reaching a total of 300 serious ones within the last three years alone. India watchers knew that in such a vitiated environment it would be a miracle if the proposed meeting came about. Their apprehensions began to take on form as the tone and tenor of South Block became more and more strident. Their demands started to turn into preconditions and finally unstatesmanlike ultimatums. The Indian deep state was at work again and the atmosphere was being set up for another rebuke.
Unfortunately, in their hurry they seem to have taken the wrong leaf from Chanakya’s handbook. A resolute adversary does not have to be tackled head on, he advocates. In this case, it is not one but two. Count China in as India’s adventurism with Pakistan tends to threaten the strategic flank of China’s major geo-political global counter-manoeuvre. Consider the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from Kashghar to Gawadar; more on this some other time.
The Indian foreign minister’s press conference on August 22, 2015 broke the camel’s back. Her delivery was characteristically brusque and coarse: “If the Pakistani NSA meets Hurriyat leaders [in New Delhi] there will be no talks… we will only talk on terrorism and nothing else… Pakistan has time till tonight to respond.” Hatred and bile were very thinly disguised. The response was obvious; Pakistan tightened its belt, refused to be pushed anymore, stood up and declared: “There will be no talks [with India] without [discussing] the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan will not propose for talks. If they propose, we will see.” The Indian media simply went berserk in disbelief and, after a stunned hush, South Block ran out of its depth comprehensively.
In retaliation they did what they do best: bite at the carpet and pull at the collar. Unprovoked shelling of Pakistani civilians and villages across the Working Boundary has increased. In their latest fit, they killed nine and injured 47 civilians, including women and children on August 27 in Kundan Pur near Sialkot. The next day in parliament, the Pakistani Defence Minister announced: “If attacked [by India] we will retaliate the way we choose. If war is imposed on us Pakistan will teach a lesson.” This reflects deep disappointment and the dark nature of things to come between the two belligerent, nuclear-armed countries. That will also be the end of Pakistan’s latest round of one-sided courtship of India. South Asia is likely to sizzle for some more time. India’s intrepid brinkmanship can have avoidable but unfortunate consequences if pursued. Sanity must prevail to prevent any catastrophic development.
Meanwhile, there is a word of caution. Great master Chanakya’s political wisdom is unchallenged and his teachings are universally applicable. However, what is wrong this time is that Mr Modi is no Chandragupta Maurya nor is his NSA Chanakya by any chance. Pakistan also is not the Nanda Empire. While all the three parameters are wrong, one may be right; Modi may be akin to Chandragupta’s son Bindusara who was touched by a drop of poison.

(Concluded)

The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan army and can be reached at clay.potter@hotmail.com