Daily Times

First Moody’s, then Fitch, and now the other most credible global ratings agency, S&P, has also downgraded Pakistan’s long-term rating from stable to negative; citing the same issues like the country’s weak external position, high commodity prices, and the forever falling rupee. Interestingly, though, the agency did mention that the rating could quickly slip back to its previous place if the finance ministry does a good job of shoring up usable forex reserves.

That’s a very tough ask right now, of course, but if the IMF program is salvaged – which is all but assured, we are told – then there’s a very strong chance of other institutions and also friendly countries joining the chorus of lending fiscal support to Islamabad.

That should bring enough reserves to provide stability in the immediate term, get these agencies to reverse their downgrades and revive investor-confidence, and also put a floor under the rupee.

But all you have to do is take a look at the finance ministry’s take on the economy, which the press covered alongside S&P’s move, to understand that things will still get a lot worse before they start to get any better. And all this while inflation is very likely to stay above 20pc. So the common man is going to have a very tough time of it and some at the very bottom of the food chain might not even make it to the other side.

It would help a great deal if the political elite were able to pause their bitter, ugly war for a while and concentrate on the economy; which is the only way to provide relief to people whose lives have been made miserable for not fault of theirs.

It’s also very true that some of the steps that are direly needed to restructure the economy will erode much of the government’s political capital. And they’re very difficult to implement in a volatile environment because they also provide very valuable fodder to the opposition; though at the cost of public welfare.

Therefore, an environment where everybody joins head and works for the economy is needed; and that will not be possible without an all-out political compromise. *