Ramifications of Turkey’s provocation

Author: Lal Khan

As the bestialterrorism sprouting form capitalism’s socioeconomic crisis ravages the world, life for ordinary soulsis becoming more and more agonising. Already immersed in the excruciating abyss of misery, poverty, drudgery, deprivation, migration, environmental disasters and disease, the curse of terrorism has made this planet a frightening place to inhabit for ordinary people. The relentless violence and mayhem in the Middle East is an expression of the rottenness of this coercive system. In the last seven decades the situation has only worsened.Syria and Islamic State (IS)are being bombed by a plethora ofmilitary powers without any success at all. Instead, there are sharpening conflicts erupting amongst the so-called allies in this war against IS. The downing of the Russian jet by Turkish F-16s is a perilous provocation in an already dangerous and extremely volatile situation.
This shooting down was no accident. It was a clear manifestation of Erdogan’s regional ambitions. He harbours the wish to re-establish the old Ottoman Empire, bringing large parts of Central Asia and the Middle East under Turkish control.It is also an open secret that Erdogan has been supporting IS and other Islamist gangs in an attempt to overthrow President Assad and grab slices of Syrian territory. That is why he has allowed nearly 20,000 Islamist fighters to cross the Turkish border, facilitated and profited from the oil supplies in control of IS while blocking the supply of arms and volunteers to the anti-IS forces in Syria, and brutally crushing the Kurds who are fighting the IS.
Western imperialists have been complicit in the arming and financing of these jihadis in Syria, including IS, by the Turkish, Saudi, Kuwaiti, Emirati and Qatari reactionary ruling elites leading to one US general declaring that there are no moderates left in Syria. Russian intervention in Syria has changed everything. It has compelled the US and European states to step up their offensive against IS. The Paris attacks have transformed discord in the west to a flurry of activity on the diplomatic front leading to a UN resolution calling on the whole world to fight ISand other Islamist, jihadi and al Qaeda-like terrorist outfits. Paris, London and Washington reluctantly have moved closer to Moscow. Putin — not them — now holds the key to Syria. Putin and Obama,during the G-8 summit in Turkey, struck a deal in direct contradiction to the interests of the Turkish and Saudi rulers. This was already made clear in October when the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were formed, supported by the west, mainly in the north and eastern provinces consisting of the KurdishPeople’s Protection Units (YPG) and a series of tribal and other US connected militias but excluded Turkish, Qatari, Kuwaiti and Saudi supported groups. The west had to accept the Russian demand that Assad must stay — at least for now — pending a “negotiated settlement” of the Syrian question.
Since the Russians started their intervention the Saudi-led coalition that is murdering innocent civilians in Yemen has stepped up arms’delivery to its Islamist, al Qaeda-connected stooges.Its main proxy,Jabhat al-Nusra, isthreatening to attack the Kurdish Canton of Afrin and has warned of an offensive against the US supported Jaish al-Thuwur. The Turks, Saudis and Qataris have been supporting these jihadi groups for years, pouring billions of dollars into their coffers; the rapprochement with Russia and Assad represents a mortal blow for them. This is particularly true in the case of Erdogan who, despite his pretention of being a powerful Ottoman ruler, is sitting on a very shaky throne.
By downing a Russian plane Erdogan hopes to provoke Russia into a retaliatory strike against Turkey, a member of NATO. That would then lead to NATO taking steps to defend Turkey and a break with Moscow, allowing Turkey to continuepursuing its own agenda and interests in Syria. These do not correspond with those of US imperialism at this moment in time. Erdogan is throwing his weight around to emphasise his inflated ego in the equation and enhance his designs through the conflict. The western imperialists are not happy with these manoeuvres as this makes work harder for French President Francois Hollande, who held talks with Putin as part of a diplomatic marathon,including talks with Merkel, Cameron and Obama,aimed at building a wide-ranging coalition to launch airstrikes against IS.
Erdogan has provoked Putin. And Putin is not a man to forgive and forget.He called the act a “stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorists”. Putin has pointed out that the plane posed no threat to Turkish national security and was targeting terrorists in the Latakia province of Syria, many of who came from Russia. He went on to say that “The flow of oil from IS controlled Syrian territory to Turkey and flow of finance and arms from Turkey shows that IS has the protection of a nation’s military (meaning Turkey). This may explain why the terrorist group is so bold in taking acts of terrorism across the world. This incident will have grave consequences for Russia’s relations with Turkey.” Putin accused Turkey of deliberately trying to bring relations between Moscow and Ankara to a standstill, adding that Moscow was still awaiting an apology or an offer of reimbursement for damages.
Putin has been breathing fire and brimstone but in practice he is not going to retaliate militarily, jeopardising his new realignment with the west. That, however, does not mean the Russians will do nothing. Already, Russia has imposed broad punitive steps including halting joint economic projects, restricting financial and trade transactions and changing customs duties. Already, the country’s tourist board has suspended all tours to Turkey, a move that is estimated will cost the Turkish economy $10billion.
The fact that Turkey did not try to contact Russia in the wake of the incident and rushed to call a NATO meeting instead shows that Turkey wants NATO to serve the interests of IS. The Americans do not want to be dragged into such a conflict to defend Erdogan, who is increasingly seen as a nuisance. As usual, the US will rant and rave, and then do nothing. The US needs Russia to help liquidate the jihadi menace in Syria. That is the main plank of their policy. In fact, it is just about the only plank they have.The constant demands for patience and restraint while the facts are studied indicate that the mood in Brussels and Washington is not belligerent but extremely nervous. The fact is that both the US and the Europeans want Moscow to be part of the solution in Syria. They will be doing everything possible to pacify the Russians and put the brakes on the Turks. But this will solve nothing. The roots of terrorism, destitution and wars are embedded in the diseased system. Without its overthrow this nightmare will keep on tormenting mankind across the planet.

The writer is the editor of Asian Marxist Review and international secretary of Pakistan Trade Union Defence Campaign. He can be reached at lalkhan1956@gmail.com

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