Fortress Nato — The Emerging Global Security Architecture

Author: Ambassador G Rasool Baluch

A three-day NATO Summit was held from June 28 to 30 in the Spanish capital, Madrid. The summit was attended by heads of state and governments of 30 NATO member countries. In addition, Indo-Pacific partners, including leaders from Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand also participated in the summit. Finland and Sweden were inducted as members of the alliance on the “fast track” due to perceived emerging threats from Russia. The Ukrainian President Mr Volodymyr Zelenskyy participated through a video link

NATO Secretary Mr Jens Stoltenberg termed the summit ” a historic and transformative summit.” The summit comes at an extraordinary time when a European country Ukraine has been attacked by Russia, which is one of the major global military powers. The inclusion of Sweden and Finland as members of NATO is ironically opposite to Putin’s’ war objective of preventing further expansion of NATO to its Eastern Front. The membership request of the two countries had the support of all NATO members except Turkey, which also agreed after a late night call by President Biden to the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who consented to support Finland and Sweden in their bid for membership to NATO. A tripartite agreement between Finland, Sweden and Turkey was signed, which was brokered by the US and NATO Secretary General. As per the agreement, Turkey got assurances about its concerns regarding Finland and Swedish support for Kurdish separatist group PKK, lifting of the arms embargo and support to dissident Fateh Gullan. Mr Erdagon was reported to have said that he got what he wanted for his support of Sweden and Finland membership bid.

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has provided NATO with a new lease of life since the Alliance was declared “brain-dead” by French President Mr Macron in 2019.

The NATO Secretary General further informed that NATO would increase its battle groups in the eastern flank of the Alliance up to a brigade level. The NATO leaders are also likely to approve plans to enhance NATO Rapid Response to more than 300,000 troops which is a seven-fold increase from 40,000 troops at present. The Rapid Response troops would be pre-assigned to specific locations. Heavy weapons, logistics and command and control assets will also be a preposition.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine initiated on February 24, 2022, by Putin has turned out to be the most brutal and devastating military confrontation in Europe, in terms of loss of human life, loss of property and destruction of Industrial/Civil infrastructure since world war two. As per several military intelligence reports, Russia has lost over 15000 soldiers, including senior military commanders and thousands of others are wounded. Hundreds of Russian tanks, armoured vehicles and military ships have been destroyed by the Ukrainian army by employing smart weapons. On the Ukrainian side, estimates of the loss of human lives are also thousands Over 10 million Ukrainian citizens became refugees. The majority were women, children and the elderly, as able-bodied young men stayed back to defend their country against the Russian invasion. Several Ukrainian cities have been razed to the ground by the unrelenting artillery bombardment by Russian forces. Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged. It would take billions of dollars and several years to rebuild Ukraine, which was one of the leading countries in industrial and agricultural output. The economic and financial haemorrhage of Russia caused by unprecedented Sanctions imposed by the US-led Western alliance has completely stifled the Russian Financial System from the world Financial system. The western imposed sanctions regime includes Russian, oil, gas and now also Gold, which are the major sources of the Russian economy.

The summit has approved a new Strategic Concept; setting out the Alliance’s priorities and approaches for the next decade. The document makes it clear that the Allies consider Russia as the “most significant and direct threat to NATO’s security.” The NATO document also mentions China for the first time, which. according to the summit declaration, poses threats to western interests and values.

The summit has approved a new comprehensive military and financial assistance package for Ukraine. NATO leaders also agreed to launch a One Billion Euro innovation Fund to invest in emerging technologies. The leaders also agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions for NATO as an organisation. The leaders of Georgia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea also joined via video link.

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has provided NATO with a new lease of life since the Alliance was declared “brain-dead” by French President Mr Macron in 2019. The alliance has drawn the battle lines. The alliance has termed Russian Federation as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”. While China has been categorised as posing systemic competition, which challenges the interests, security, and values of the member countries and seeks to “undermine the rules-based international order.” The alliance has agreed on a set of new baseline for its deterrence and defence posture and to protect populations of member countries and defend every inch of Allied territory at all times. NATO will enhance strategic cooperation in line with a 360-degree approach, across the land, air, maritime, cyber, and space domains, and against all threats and challenges including asymmetrical threats i.e. terrorism. It further sets out NATO’s three core tasks of deterrence and defence; crisis prevention and management; and cooperative security in the spirit of our transatlantic solidarity. The major member countries have enhanced their respective defence budgets. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the recent solidarity amongst the NATO member countries, seems to be aimed at creating Fortress NATO commandeered by the US. Strategically, the Alliance would position itself in a forward defence posture in a “Two Theater Wars Scenario” i.e. “The European Theater of War” and the “Indo Pacific Theater of War.” We are likely to see peace diplomacy taking a back seat in the coming few years or till the Ukraine crisis and the South China Sea/ Taiwan continue to simmer with great power rivalry and kinetic military confrontation.

The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam.

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