Post-FATF talk prospects on Kashmir

Author: Dr Qaisar Rashid

Having comprehensively reformed the country’s system and fully complied with all the imposed conditions, Pakistan would expectantly come out of the grey list of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) by October this year. From then onward, Pakistan would be a free country to think that June 2018, when it was placed on the increased monitoring grey list, would never return. Pakistan must have learnt to straighten up its backyard to circumvent the bitter experience. While Pakistan was wrangling with the FATF, India cashed in on the opportunity to change the status of its held part of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. In August 2019, India forcefully and unlawfully changed Kashmir’s special autonomous status to its favour. India revoked Article 370 (and Article 35A) of its constitution and made Kashmir its subordinate part. If it were so simple! In the context of law, under Article 370(3), India could not have repealed the status without the concurrence of Kashmir’s Constituent Assembly which had been dissolved on 25 January 1957 without granting any such permission. Interestingly, in August 2019, India attempted to salvage the time lost.

In so doing, India overlooked the fact that it had admitted on the platform of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that Kashmir was a disputed territory the future of which was yet to be decided. In January 1948, at India’s request, the UNSC took up the matter and, in the same year, passed four Resolutions (38, 39, 47 and 51) under the subject, “The India-Pakistan Question”. Hitherto, the UNSC has passed no fewer than 17 resolutions – all signifying the unresolved disputed status of Kashmir.

It is also known that India wanted to avoid multilateralism available at the UNSC. For this purpose, in July 1972, India entered into the Simla Agreement with Pakistan to settle the dispute bilaterally and regionally through dialogue. In May 1997, at Male, the capital of the Maldives, India’s Prime Minister (PM) Inder Kumar Gujral and Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif agreed to start a structured dialogue called the Composite Dialogue Process, the first round of which took place in October-November 1998.

India has been trying not only to reduce the stature of the Kashmir dispute but India has also been buying time to affect the future of the dispute

In February 1999, the Lahore Declaration reinforced the peace idea. Through the declaration, both signatory countries announced to commit themselves not only to respect the principles and purposes of the UN Charter but also to implementing the Simla Agreement in letter and spirit. Moreover, the declaration formalized the Composite Dialogue Process, which was supposed to be held bilaterally.

After the Lahore Declaration, Pakistan failed to control the situation. From May to July 1999, Pakistan resorted to the Kargil war. In October 2001, militants of both Lashkar-e Taiba and Jaish-e Mohammad attacked the Kashmir assembly complex in Srinagar and, in December 2001, five militants of the Lashkar-e Taiba attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi. The result was the suspension of the Composite Dialogue. In January 2002, Pakistan’s then-President General Pervez Musharraf took to the public and denounced terrorism. He also pledged not to support non-state actors as an instrument of state policy. He also announced to ban militant groups based in Pakistan fighting for the cause of Kashmir. He also permitted India to fence the Line of Control (LoC) to stop infiltrations.

In January 2004, both Pakistan and India reached an agreement underscoring Pakistan’s commitment to preventing “any territory under its control” from committing “terrorism against India.” The reference point for the agreement was the Lahore Declaration which had given a roadmap for peaceful settlement of mutual disputes including the issue of Kashmir. The level of bilateral confidence mounted and, in July 2004, both countries resumed the Composite Dialogue on the issue of Kashmir at the foreign secretary-level. In September 2004, India also completed fencing the LoC. India resumed the dialogue to give an impression of its seriousness; otherwise, the real objective was to complete fencing the LoC.

At the regional bilateral level, the Composite Dialogue was the way out. Rounds failed to even discuss the Kashmir issue. In the meantime, non-state actors got strengthened. In November 2008, the Lashkar-e Taiba was found launching a series of attacks on the city of Mumbai, India. This was another turning point in bilateral relations. India suspended the Composite Dialogue. Afterwards, in November 2015, the dialogue was restored, but under the title of the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue which would prioritize the issue of terrorism from across the border. In January 2016, the terrorists’ attack on Pathankot Air Base offered a major setback. With that, the issue of Kashmir lost relevance in bilateral talks. Eventually, the Comprehensive Dialogue ended in nought. India found a chance to abandon the dialogue.

In 2018, through the FATF, India launched a renewed onslaught on Pakistan, which had to succumb to the pressure. In 2019, by changing the status of Kashmir in its constitution, India did an act of injustice. This is an example of how India has been trying not only to reduce the stature of the Kashmir dispute but India has also been buying time to affect the future of the dispute. The sufferers are the Kashmiris. By June 2022, as per the wishes of India, Pakistan had penalized the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack.

In short, India knocked at the door of the UNSC to get the Kashmir issue resolved. India was wary of the international stature of the issue and hence, in the disagreement between East and West Pakistan, India secured an opportunity to have an axe to grind. India reduced the issue’s stature to bilateral dialogue under the Simla agreement but remained reluctant to enter into a fruitful discussion to resolve the matter. The Lahore Declaration offered a renewed opportunity to discuss the Kashmir issue in the ensuing Composite Dialogue. Even that remained otiose. Afterwards, India agreed to start the Comprehensive Dialogue but evaded discussing the Kashmir issue.

It is high time Pakistan invited India to open bilateral negotiations, the Comprehensive Dialogue, and discussed the issue of Kashmir at the foreign secretary-level.

The writer can be reached at qaisarrashid @yahoo.com

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