Daily Times

Relations between Riyadh and Tehran have been tense ever since the Islamic Republic of Iran was established in the Iranian Revolution of 1979. In recent times, religious competition between the Islamic world’s Shia and Sunni powerhouses have also turned into burgeoning geopolitical rivalry. But the current decision by Saudi Arabia to execute prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr has brought Saudi-Iranian relations to their lowest. The two Middle Eastern giants are raising the level of hostilities between them at considerable risk to peace in the region.

Because of the Iranian and Saudi tussle in recent days the whole region seems divided on sectarian lines. The chain reaction of the diplomatic fallout has unfolded over the past few days across the region. Saudi Arabia has severed all diplomatic relations with Iran. Saudi allies Bahrain, Sudan and Djibouti quickly followed suit. Other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies like Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE opted for the less drastic measure of recalling their ambassadors. On other hand, the Shia camp also reacted very sharply. The Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah issued a statement calling al-Nimr’s execution an “assassination” and an “ugly crime”. In Tehran, Iranian hardliners stormed the Saudi embassy, which is against universally agreed upon rules of foreign relations when it comes to safeguarding diplomatic missions. But all these developments are just the start of the major conflict that is about to start in the region.

The struggle between Riyadh and Tehran for political and religious influence has geopolitical implications that extend far beyond the placid waters of the Gulf and encompass nearly every major conflict zone in the Middle East. A diplomatic rupture between the major Sunni and Shia powers in the region will resonate across the Middle East, where they back opposing sides in many destructive wars and simmering conflicts. The first casualty was the collapsed ceasefire between Houthi rebels and the Saudis. The next one will probably be the planned UN-led conference in Vienna to negotiate a political settlement between the warring parties in Syria, which is not wholeheartedly supported by Saudi Arabia anyway. Moreover, more unrest can be expected in Iraq, Lebanon and even Bahrain because of the recent Saudi and Iranian tussle. Now, in such a supercharged atmosphere, the moderate middle ground has been sorely weakened and advocates of a hard line approach to regional affairs hold sway. Some analysts believe that Saudi Arabia may be deliberately fanning the flames of war in the region in a bid to sabotage the agreement between the Iranians and the international community led by the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC’s) permanent members plus Germany. But Iran also has not responded to the whole episode maturely.

The embassy attack makes it clear that Iran has failed to protect international diplomats. Tehran has arrested some people but the incident could have been averted with prompt action, which Iranians failed to take. It is being believed that the embassy attack in Tehran was executed by a powerful group of hardliners who are trying to derail President Rouhani’s foreign policy initiatives in an effort to weaken his domestic political power and image. The defiance and anger in both capitals will not fade soon while neither government is eager to step back from the brink. Both know a direct military confrontation would be ruinous, bloody and asymmetrical. Avoiding direct confrontation, both are likely to escalate their roles in proxy wars across the region, which will definitely create havoc in the already burning region.

The bilious rhetoric between the two countries sours by the day and it is still the people caught in the crosshairs of proxy conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq and Lebanon who are paying the heaviest price of this bull fight. Some effective and immediate steps should be taken by the international community and the UN to calm the boiling equations between the Saudis and Iranians. First of all, the January 25 international conference in Geneva that seeks a diplomatic solution to Syria’s civil war should be postponed in order to give Saudi Arabia and Iran a calming period. Secondly, the US should reassure Saudi Arabia it is not in going in favour of Iran over the Saudis so that the Saudis remain calm and do not feel insecure. Finally, the UN should send its envoy to both Riyadh and Tehran to convince the Saudis and Iranians to de-escalate the situation. We have to understand that it is very important to have cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran as they are two major powers in West Asia for resolving conflicts in the region. Moreover, this conflict between the Saudis and Iranians will also complicate the fight against Islamic State (IS) in the sense that IS will take the opportunity to exploit two regional powers going after each other rather than going after it.

The author is a columnist for the Middle East and Af-Pak region and editor of the geo-political news agency ViewsAround. He can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com