Daily Times

Nearly two decades after Pakistan crossed the nuclear threshold on a day that has since been commemorated as Yaum-e-Takbir, it may be appropriate to ask whether Pakistan is more secure today than it was in the past.

India had embarked upon its military nuclear programme in 1974 with its first nuclear test at Pokhran. Pakistan had no option but to follow suit because of the threat India’s nuclear programme posed to the region. In May 1998, India again tested nuclear devices following which it went into a jingoistic fever, intimidating its western neighbour with dire consequences. This forced Pakistan to come out of its nuclear closet on May 28, 1998.

Pakistan is keen to keep the Indian Ocean de-nuclearised but it is also eager to acquire civil nuclear energy to meet its energy requirements

One would have assumed that following Pakistan’s declaration of its nuclear assets, India would have rested on its laurels but its defence planners aspired to develop the nuclear triad: aerial, surface and sub-surface based nuclear weapons.

India’s martial strategies including the Cold Start Doctrine are Pakistan-centric. Since its war doctrine, based on the German strategy of Blitzkrieg, was designed to rapidly strike Pakistan with quick response forces and decimate Pakistan before it could deploy its nukes, Pakistan had to devise a counter strategy by developing battlefield tactical nuclear weapons. India has cried hoarse regarding the security of Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons, stating that these weapons would be prone to snatch-and-grab by miscreants. Meanwhile, India has been developing its own Prahaar and Shaurya tactical nuclear missiles.

To make matters more precarious, India now seems bent on introducing nuclear weaponry in the seas, which would exacerbate the South Asian security environment. Taking lessons from Indian strategic thinker K M Pannikar and US Naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan — that is, the key to world domination in the 21st century would lie in control of the Indian Ocean — India has been nuclearising the seas at a rapid pace. It is being egged on in this quest by the US, which perceives India to be able to counter growing Chinese presence in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. Besides using its own brand of gunboat diplomacy, the US is supporting India’s nuclearisation process by sustaining its dream of joining the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG).

Indian articulation of its ambition is vividly depicted in its Naval Strategy Document of 2015. Various steps taken by India in the near past to nuclearise the Indian Ocean comprise building or acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and conventional sub surface platforms equipped with nuclear warheads among other weapon systems. These include the INS Chakra, an Akula class submarine leased from Russia. An Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) Project has been underway since 1999, under the joint supervision of the Indian Navy, the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). This project produced its first nuclear ballistic missile submarine, the INS Arihant. The submarine has completed its critical diving tests and undergone test launch of unarmed ballistic missiles.

The hulls of another two SSBNs, including INS Aridhaman, have already been completed and these vessels are expected to be launched in 2017. In March 2016, India had conducted a test of the K-4, an intermediate range nuclear-capable submarine-launched ballistic missile, from the INS Arihant in the Bay of Bengal. The K-4 and the projected K-5 will thus become parts of its nuclear triad, enabling India to have second strike nuclear capability.

The INS Chakra, the first nuclear attack submarine in the Indian fleet, was commissioned in the Indian Navy in April 2012. Additionally, the Indo-Russian joint production has helped India acquire the Talwar class frigates. The new frigates of this kind are armed with eight Brahmos missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This missile can be launched from submarines, surface ships, land and air, thereby, providing additional strength to Indian nuclear arsenal.

The Indian Navy’s area of operation includes the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Bay of Bengal. These waters include numerous sea lines of communication (SLOC) chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab El Mandeb, and the Malacca Straits. With its advanced naval platforms, India will be able to deny the SLOCs for other littoral states while keeping its own routes open.

Pakistan is keen to keep the Indian Ocean denuclearised but at the same time it is eager to acquire civil nuclear energy to meet its requirements for power. If Pakistan is to be made truly secure, it must set its own house in order, while simultaneously exposing Indian designs to subvert the peace and tranquillity of South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV Talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China