Daily Times

China is being surrounded by all four corners by the US and their allies. All the big powers are on the same page against China. Their efforts are peaking up. All conspiracy theories are narrowing down on China to put the country under weather. On the other hand, the friends of China are suffering from their own miseries and conspiracies. Even so, they are less in numbers and economic partners. Only Russia has a defence and security pack with China. What would happen if China would be surrounded all around and how? No doubt, China has proved to be a rational and sane country so far. Will it continue so if some geostrategic action would be taken against its national security and defence or any attempt against its economic interests anywhere? Seems impossible for China to absorb any unexpected move by the US and its allies. Reading Chinese foreign office statements between the lines reflects a shocking reaction. Probably, the US and its allies are only interested to disrupt everything in the region to curtail China’s economic and strategic expansion. They are not bothered about the tragedy that would happen to other countries in direct and collateral damage. Defence experts believe that even a war on China will not help the US, rather the US would have to face more consequences. Higher than what the allies found in Afghanistan. A strong opposition exists in the US and the West to the undue efforts to impose war on China. Even the West is unwillingly supporting the US in the Ukraine war. Strange decisions are being taken by the President Biden administration and his statements are sans rationality. In such a shameful series of incidents and statements, the world is being dragged into a deeper hell.

Weeks after the US president warned China over Taiwan, Beijing delivered its sternest rebuttal yet, saying it would “resolutely crush any attempt” at Taiwan’s independence. On Sunday, China’s Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe essentially accused the US of supporting the island’s independence, saying it was “violating its promise on Taiwan” and “interfering” in China’s affairs. He has categorically said at the Shangri-la Dialogue, an Asian security summit held in Singapore, that if anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China. His comments follow US President Joe Biden’s recent message to China that it was “flirting with danger” by flying its warplanes close to Taiwan. President Biden vowed to protect the island militarily if it was attacked.

A strong opposition exists in the US and the West to the undue efforts to impose war on China.

Taiwan, which considers itself a sovereign nation, has long been claimed by China. But Taiwan also counts the US as its biggest ally, and Washington has a law which requires it to help the island defend itself. The escalation in rhetoric comes as, said to be, China increasingly sends warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone – flying their largest sortie of the year just last month – while the US has sent naval ships through Taiwan’s waters.

The situation has rapidly become very tense and now all global stakeholders are pondering if the US and China are actually moving towards a military conflict? One major fear is that war would be triggered if China invades Taiwan. Beijing has said in the past it could reclaim the island by force if necessary. But most analysts say this is unlikely for the moment. There has been debate over whether China has the military capability to succeed in an invasion, and Taiwan has been considerably ramping up its air and sea defences. But many agree that Beijing recognizes that such a move would be too costly and disastrous – not only for China but also for the world.

William Choong, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, however, believes that there’s a lot of rhetoric, but the Chinese have to mind the gap very carefully if they want to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially so close to the Ukraine crisis. The Chinese economy is far more interconnected with the global economy than Russia’s. China’s consistent position has been that it seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan – something that Gen Wei reiterated on Sunday – and that it would only act if faced with a provocation.

It is said that one trigger would likely be Taiwan formally declaring independence. But this is something that its President Tsai Ing-wen has strenuously avoided, even as she insists they are already a sovereign state. Most Taiwanese support this position, which is known as “maintaining the status quo”, though increasingly a small number say they want to move toward independence. Similarly, the US would be reluctant to be drawn into a costly military conflict in Asia and has signalled repeatedly that they do not want war.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who also attended the Singapore Dialogue, said in his speech that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence, nor does it want “a new Cold War”. The strange conflict between statements and actions.

The writer is a freelance journalist and broadcaster, and Director (Devcom-Pakistan). He can be reached at devcom.pakistan @gmail.com and tweets @EmmayeSyed