Daily Times

Before I continue with predictions about some other countries, I would like to point out that in my predictions last week for this year I had predicted that General Raheel Sharif would neither ask for nor be offered an extension of his service as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). Almost within a day the army’s publicity department (ISPR) came out to state that the COAS was not going to accept an extension in his service. Now I could insist that it was my column that drove the COAS to his declaration. But,most likely, the prediction just happened to precede the COAS’s service declaration by pure chance. Or, charitably,it was an educated guess on my part. We still have almost an entire year to go through before I am proved right.

Now, to move westward first. Our ‘bestest’ neighbour is Afghanistan. I predict that things will settle down in Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban will end up negotiating with the Afghan government. No, I do not think there will be peace and neither do I think that the goat and the lion will be sharing the same water fountain this year. The US will, however, achieve its primary goal in Afghanistan and that is not having an embarrassing Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon) type retreat (April 30, 1975) from Kabul before the presidential election in the US to be held in November this year. As far as relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are concerned, if the two countries can control each other’s Taliban, things might become a lot friendlier.

Concerning our former best friend, Iran, things are going to be a lot better for that country after the lifting of nuclear sanctions. This year is a big year for Iran. How things work out remains to be seen but, by the end of this year, I predict that the Iranian economy will be on the mend. At the same time, the tensions between the conservatives and the reformists will become more intense. The upcoming elections will as usual be controlled by controlling those that can contest. However, for the foreseeable future, the ‘supreme leader’ will be the one in charge. Presidents and parliaments might come and go. As far as Iran-Pakistan relations are concerned, Pakistan for all practical purposes is a non-entity for Iran at this time.

In the Middle East, things are not going to change much this year. The fighting will go on but President Assad of Syria, the king of Saudi Arabia and other monarchs and presidents will stay put. Islamic State (IS) will neither expand nor disappear. President Erdogan of Turkey will come closer to his goal of becoming a president for life with powers similar to those of an Ottoman sultan. And, yes, Turkey will start realising if it already has not that its relationship with the anti-Assad forces, especially IS, is not unlike that of Pakistan with the Taliban. As far as Israel and the Palestinians are concerned, Israel will keep absorbing Palestinian land and building new Jewish settlements. And, yes, those poor Yemenis, may Allah and the Saudis have pity on them. Egypt will stay as it is and so will other North African countries. Libya has already ceased to exist as a coherent state. It will stay the same.

Europe is in trouble. Refugees and Islamist terrorism will keep all countries on edge. I predict that Europe, led by Germany, will survive the refugee crisis. They will eventually pay off Turkey and Jordan to keep the refugees. However, Europe will see a revival of hard right fascist type parties but these will stay on the fringes without gaining or sharing power. The British referendum on staying in the European Union (EU) is still a year away so the EU will survive for now. Russia will menace but it does not seem to have any serious territorial ambitions left. More importantly, Russia needs to fix its economy before any further adventures abroad. Crimea and Syria are enough for Russia at this time. Whether he likes it or not, Prince Charles will not become king of England just yet.

Now, to the big one: the US. This is an election year. So, I predict that the next president of the US will not be Sanders, Bush or Trump. I predict that the Democrats will win back the Senate but the House will stay with the Republicans. Also, for Muslims there will be no internment camps just yet. Other than that, the US economy will keep getting better and, for this year at least, the US will not be invading any country. Involvement in Iraq will be limited to ‘advisers’ and special ops. But then that is a slippery slope. US-Iranian relations will thaw but will not warm up. Pro-Israeli lobbies and the Republicans will keep trying to undo the Iran deal but the horse, as they say, has already left the barn or perhaps, more appropriately, Elvis has left the building. About the rest of the Americas, South America has donated the latest healthcare scare with the spread of the Zika virus. That is enough about them. Canada I predict will stay cold and liberal.

On the east perhaps the more important country for us at this time is China. The Chinese have made a major economic commitment to Pakistan but the Chinese economy has started to slow down. If the Chinese go through a major economic downturn this year that could clearly imperil the planned China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, my prediction is that the Chinese economy has gone through its ‘soft landing’ and will stabilise. India is always important but once we exclude our mutual paranoia then India is no longer as important as it used to be. The Indians realise that as do the Pakistanis so I predict that there will be some movement towards normalisation of relations between these two countries.

The author is a former editor of the Journal of Association of Pakistani descent Physicians
of North America (APPNA)