Daily Times

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail would no doubt have wished that the economic environment was half as tranquil as the national assembly was when he delivered the budget speech because no matter how much he bends over backwards to sprinkle the document with sweeteners for common people, it is still bound to cause a lot of resentment. Such, unfortunately, are the circumstances.

And then this government had very little time to prepare a budget to meet such difficult conditions. Whether they asked for it by forcing down the previous government is an argument for another day, but despite the obvious, usual increases in defence (up 11.5 per cent from last year) and debt repayment (up 29 per cent), which together make up about 45.4 per cent of the total expenditure, it’s interesting to see a little toggling with customs duties to shelter imports for the export industry.

Surely, they’ve run this by the IMF because the economy has no appetite for a rerun of last year when Shaukat Tarin departed from the Fund’s conditions and produced an expansionary budget, only to roll much of it back and introduce a mini-budget some months later. Now that the oil and power subsidies have been buried, passing this much through should not be impossible.

Salary and pension increases for government officials will do very little to lighten the blow, but they still beat expectations. If targeted imports can feed exports even as everybody struggles with prices and the economy can pick up even a little bit, then more incentives can be put on the table.

The problem is, just like every year, there’s no chance that too many of the budget’s targets will be met. You can be sure that the development budget will start taking cuts before the first quarter is out, and a lot of other things will follow, complete with the blame game and never-ending excuses for not meeting targets.

That naturally makes one question the very purpose of the whole exercise. The coming fiscal year will be difficult even if everything goes according to the finance minister’s script. Judging by history, though, there are very slim chances of that happening. After all, that is the biggest common feature every year. *