Daily Times

Will he or won’t he? The question that has held the nation’s attention and plagued television screens in recent times to no end was finally laid to rest when the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) made public the army chief’s decision to not seek an extension of his term in office last week. General Raheel Sharif, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), is due to retire in November this year when his constitutional three-year term ends and, if all goes according to plan, we will have a new commander at the helm of the Pakistani army at the end of this year.

The speculation frenzy that had surrounded the chief’s decision was unprecedented in both its magnitude and absurdity. In some respects, the speculation is understandable since General Sharif’s mark on the country’s foreign and domestic policy has been noticeable to many who crave a much more authoritative figure in charge of the country’s affairs, even though he has so far resisted the urge to usurp the ruling elected government. His decision to keep the army away from direct rule of the country is perhaps informed, in part, by the shadow of his two immediate predecessors, both of whom left the institution in worse shape than it had been at the start of their terms.

But his decision must also be influenced by the surrounding circumstances present within the country these days that have deemed it possible for the army to play a more indirect role in the running of the affairs without ceding too much control to the elected leadership. This, although undesirable from the perspective of the civilian leadership, is nonetheless a fine balance, one that many former army chiefs have been unable to maintain this deftly and for this long.

Now of course, we cannot discount the general’s instrumental role towards allocating energies and resources towards Operation Zarb-e-Azab as well, the military version of the counter-terrorism drive against domestic militants in the form of the National Action Plan (NAP), that has been a resounding military success so far, even though it has not achieved much in terms of eradicating the origins of the extremist mindset.

As a result of Zarb-e-Azab, the military, under the incisive command of the general, has regained control of a sizeable portion of territory in the tribal areas, thereby delivering a sharp blow to the militancy infrastructure. A direct result of the military gains made during the counter-terror operation has been the sharp decline in the number of terror-related attacks in various urban areas in the country but there is a lot that still remains to be done by the civilian leadership in order to apprehend and contain the perpetrators of hate in Pakistan.

In the wake of the recent surge in violent attacks, including the attack on Bacha Khan University in Charsadda a week ago, a heated debate has been initiated that is geared towards questioning the efficacy of the country’s counter-terrorism efforts. The reality is that the possibility of terror still remains and will remain for the foreseeable future. Resultantly, there is a sense of incompleteness when it comes to the counter-terror effort, which is precisely why the meek had been desirous of a little more time and effort from their saviour.

However, we must understand that if the objective behind Zarb-e-Azab is the complete eradication of extremism, then such a goal will always remain just out of reach, since without a concerted effort that overhauls the country’s educational, social and cultural fabric, achieving change will always remain a distant goal. On the other hand, the operation’s military gains, although remarkable, will remain insufficient as well since killing active combatants does precious little to dissuade the new recruits in a battle that is ideological as much as it is political.

Interestingly, however, the way the announcement was made public has also led some to speculate about further asymmetries within the civil-military imbalance in the country. Whereas the lopsided power balance is an open secret, the solo announcement confirms the military’s stronghold on the civilian leadership in recent times. Frustration over the implementation of the NAP has ruffled a lot of feathers within the military and the civilian leadership’s haphazard damage control policies towards containing extremism within Pakistani society remain a source of contention as well, thereby driving the two de facto power sources in the country further and further apart.

The announcement, moreover, comes at an interesting time because of the upcoming elections. If all goes well, 2018 will be the year of elections and when a new COAS arrives in December this year, the change will add a wild card within the ruling PML-N government’s calculus.

Historically, Prime Minister (PM) Sharif has had a tough time reconciling his own ambition with the realities of the Pakistani political setup. One way this trend has manifested itself is through his selection of, and later on his interactions with, the army leaders he has appointed to the post of COAS of the Pakistani army. Time after time, his appointees have left much to be desired from the politician’s perspective and he therefore remains wary and cautious of the khakhis.

So, when the time comes for appointing the new chief, the PM will have to make calculations for his government’s future based on incomplete information and very little in the way of revealed preferences of the potential candidates for the job of the chief. It is highly likely, based on current trends, that the PML-N will win another term in office in Punjab and at the Centre, so therefore keeping his seat at the helm will be of primary importance to Nawaz Sharif. You know it is a dangerous mix when you have a wary leader concerned about retaining his power, and we as Pakistanis are all too familiar with the disastrous results this recipe has generated over the past.

Of course, PM Sharif would have liked General Sharif to continue, with whom he has carved out an uncomfortable yet workable relationship. But much to his chagrin, the general has taken the initiative to announce his retirement way ahead of time, which actually could be a blessing or a curse for the PML-N supremo, based on how he conducts himself in the coming days. PM Sharif could take this time to orient himself to the changed landscape and prepare himself for the eventual changeover on the military front, so that there is no disruption caused by the transition. Alternatively though, he could indulge in his signature, equivocal meekness that is bound to leave him – as well as the country – unprepared and none the better for the foreseeable future. It will be interesting for astute political observers to see how things unfold in the coming days and how the players reveal their strategies gradually over time but the sobering reality is that such strategies will end up impacting the lives of ordinary Pakistanis.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations