Daily Times

I have always had a natural aversion to modern day predictions, which is also perhaps the reason for scepticism over the efficient market hypothesis and asset pricing models that arguably were dreamt up to provide some sort of credibility to dealings in the stock market. If nobody knows what may or may not happen the next minute, expectation of bears and bulls relating to share price movements is unadulterated hogwash, or wishful thinking synonymous with betting on roulette. Someday, eventually, I shall pen down why, contrary to popular notion, speculations of mere, but greedy, mortals cannot be an indicator of the health of the real economy.

Getting back to other predictions that float around from time to time, irrespective of the personal belief that they are tantamount to a big fat nothing, one must concede they do have entertainment value. So, ever you heard about Baba Vanga? For those who have not, she was, as reported, a Bulgarian who died in 1996 and was known as the Nostradamus from the Balkans. Those readers who do not know about Nostradamus, just forget it. Apparently, relying on the internet, Baba Vanga predicted 9/11, the 2004 Tsunami, the birth of, hold on to your hats, Islamic State (IS)and that the 44th president of the US would be an African-American!

The more interesting part is that Baba Vanga apparently made a lot of predictions going upto the 40th century at which time the earth will supposedly die but the good news is that something akin to Star Wars will be nigh: mankind will be advanced enough to move to another solar system. What the capitalists should worry about is that by 2076 communism will return to Europe and the rest of the world. More interestingly, the Baba, when predicting Mr Obama becoming the president of the US, simultaneously stated that he would be the last president of the US. Generally, predictions are in riddles, much to the dismay of Croesus, king of Lydia; had he known which great empire was going to be destroyed, he surely would not have crossed the river. Accordingly, the “last president” could mean anything; perhaps they will have kings after that. Listening to some of the presidential candidates, they already behave like monarchs!

For 2016, the prediction by Baba Vanga, courtesy news.com.au: “Muslims will invade Europe, which will cease to exist as we know it. The ensuing campaign of destruction will last years, driving out populations and leaving the entire continent almost empty.” Before getting all excited and going into a tiff, kindly refer to the beginning of the article, and let us not forget that vague statements like that can be twisted to predict or mean anything. For instance, during a Google search, I came across a comment that the World War III prediction by Baba Vanga was sufficiently turned turtle to mean the Arab Spring. On a separate note, the images made by Jean-Marc Cote between 1899 and 1910, depicting the world in the year 2000, are rather more eye catching.

Fun and games aside, the genesis of this article lies in another article that came through the internet about chilling predictions for the next 10 years by a private intelligence firm, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor). Okay, still fun and games today, but hey why would you all want to read some more dribble about why Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) should, or should not be, privatised, or when and how far the military will go in making things right.

According to Stratfor, cheap oil, the depreciating ruble and lots of other things will break up Russia, and our gun slinging friends from the wild west will have to invade another country for the good of the world to secure Russian nukes. Frankly, this particular scenario has been on the table for a while, so no big surprises there. Next is Germany, whose economy is predicted to stagnate due to declining exports brought about by the euro crisis and because, due to a declining population, domestic consumption is not projected to fill the gap. I always did believe that population growth was not a negative; maybe it is not too late for the Germans to work on that. Poland is predicted to take the mantle of the regional leadership of Europe for the opposite reasons and, fantastically, there will be four Europes: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the British Islands. And then there is that part about Turkey becoming a closer ally of the US against a disintegrating Russia. Although in the next 10 years, due to its growing economy and what not, Americans will be generally happy to stay at home with fewer adventures around the globe. For my money, the last one is pretty farfetched.

The news is not good on China. Stratfor predicts that because of a slowing economy, widespread discontent will erupt against the Communist Party, which will continue to resist democracy. A bigger problem for China is predicted to be the difference in the quality of life between different regions that could foster a deeper split. China and Japan will be at loggerheads to protect their perceived maritime interests with the latter becoming the continent’s rising naval power. Apparently, Stratfor has not heard about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC), and how it will radically change the economic outlook of China’s western provinces and revive economic growth across China. Because of the CPEC, Pakistan’s economy will become vibrant and will grow at record rates.

The fact that Stratfor has never heard about the CPEC is further confirmed by their belief that the slowing of the Chinese economy will result in the migration of entry-level manufacturing jobs to 16 emerging economies, and they do not include Pakistan in their list, which has Ethiopia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Peru. Because of the CPEC a lot of manufacturing is supposed to come to Pakistan, is it not? Contrary to the domestic belief that the world revolves around us, this article does not even mention Pakistan; talk about blunders!

To venture a guess, considering the quality of the above predictions, in 10 years time, there will not be any Stratfor. But that in itself is a prediction and hence retracted. On the other hand, what if a few of the predictions, by chance, and considering that the world is becoming a pretty unpredictable and stupid place to live in, turn out to be right? Well let us hope China does not reel under before it has dished out the $ 46 billion for the CPEC because, minus China, and the US retracting its influence in the region, who will balance our budget? It is not like we can do something we have never done before!

The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. He can be reached at syed.bakhtiyarkazmi@gmail.com and on twitter @leaccountant