Where is America headed? This is no longer an idle or academic question. It could be existential. While that alone is a highly startling admission, consider how the United States was created.
The most trenchant statement in the Declaration of Independence, arguably, is not equality of men and by extension women. Rather, “When government becomes destructive, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it and establish a new one!”
That precipitated a successful revolution in 1776. What happens in 2026 or indeed sooner? The trajectory of the nation is not good.
As argued in my latest book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” of the seven major disruptors, failed and failing, i.e. destructive, the government is the most dangerous. Both Democrats and Republicans have demonstrated a singular inability to govern. Yes, the US Congress has overwhelmingly agreed to send $40 billion in aid to Ukraine. And both parties concur that China is the largest clear and present danger to the US.
BUT, Congress is unable and possibly incapable of dealing with the border and immigration; political time bombs in the form of the “4G’s-guns, gays, God and gestation periods; debt; and imposing even a patina of civility and compromise in deliberations. That Democrats in the House may vote to indict Republican members for defying subpoenas issued by the January 6th Committee would be reciprocated by the GOP if it held the majority. Public resentment over failure to govern is one reason why Congress is held in such contempt.
Public resentment over failure to govern is one reason why Congress is held in such contempt.
Internationally, U.S. national security strategy, to be updated shortly, has been to “contain, deter and if war comes defeat” a number of adversaries headed by China and Russia. That strategy, however, has failed to contain and deter Russia from invading Ukraine and China from its aggressive policies. Worse, that strategy is unaffordable even spending $800 billion a year on national defence because uncontrolled real annual cost growth exceeds annual defence increases by about $100 billion.
Domestically, violence is becoming widespread. Drug overdose deaths exceeded 100,000 this year and may be increasing-another sign of social ill-health. Depending on how the final Supreme Court decision on Roe v Wade in Dobbs v Jackson is written, protests in front of the Court building could explode as happened on January 6th.
In a country divided 50/50 on virtually every issue in which opposition is based more on political affiliation than objective differences, vitriol and emotion make resolution almost impossible. As Lincoln noted, a nation so divided cannot long endure. And as one wing of one political party rejects the results of the 2020 presidential election as “stolen,” despite every court decision and legitimate piece of evidence to the contrary, this is highly unhealthy.
Three crucial questions must be addressed. First, is this assessment of America’s political health accurate? Second, if it is, what can be done to reverse this condition? Third, can and how can corrective action be implemented?
President Joe Biden ran on uniting the country. So far, that has not worked. The divides have been exacerbated. Republicans have no answer except to win control of Congress in November.
The Fifth Horseman offers several corrective ideas and recommendations. First must be broader public recognition and understanding of the dangerous state of the Union and the vital need to relieve and reverse this condition. That requires closer public involvement. Mandatory voting might precipitate that engagement as voting should require greater scrutiny and selection of candidates.
Second, as noted in this column, creating a public-private partnership for a National Investment Infrastructure Fund patterned after the greatest economic boom in American history following the end of the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic is essential. As Americans bought war bonds in World War II, inflation-adjusted bombs guaranteed by the government paying several per cent over prime could raise $3-4 trillion above the $1.2 trillion already appropriated by Congress.
Oversight would be by both government and private sector personnel. The bonds would be repaid not only through tolls and fees. In those investments in infrastructure technology companies, the government would take equity positions as it did in TARP (Troubled Assets Recovery Program) responding to the 2008 financial crisis and making money. That would be repeated.
Last, and not in the book, the president and leaders of Congress must meet and agree to areas of common interest for as long as it takes. If not, beware of the Declaration of Independence and destructive government!
The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.
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