Daily Times

The situation in Afghanistan does not augur well. The distressing part is that no viable solutions towards peace and stability seem to be available. Kandahar, Sangin, Kunduz, Lashkar Gah — all are under threat of Afghan Taliban takeover. How events in Afghanistan, over the decades, have gradually been overtaken for the worst can be imagined from the fact that Lashkar Gah, in the 1960s, was called the ‘little America in Asia’. It was built on the pattern of a US suburb.

The result of the intervention in Afghanistan by NATO allies starting from 2001 is here. A recent UN report on Afghanistan states that 3,445 civilian lost their lives in 2015, tragically the worst year since 2001. In September, last year, the Taliban managed to seize the northern Afghanistan city of Kunduz, their flag was raised in the city centre and over many government buildings. The Taliban stayed there for a week and retreated after government reinforcements arrived. The Taliban termed it as a ‘strategic retreat’, again this time over Kunduz stands threatened by a takeover. The attack on Sangin in December last year was repulsed by Afghan security forces and the US-led coalition’s air support and strategic guidance. The attack on Sangin in December gained global significance after the deputy governor of Helmand, Mohammed Jan, posted a message on Facebook to President Ashraf Ghani portraying the plight of surrounded Afghan forces, pointing to lack of munitions and men. Reinforcements of government troops did arrive in Sangin and achieved some major success in a battle for the city. Over the past few weeks, Taliban fighters have managed a comeback and are in control of many busy shopping areas in Sangin. In January, one US soldier was killed and two wounded fighting alongside the Afghan forces in Helmand.

The presence of the Taliban is now being felt on the outskirts of Kabul, as if they are just waiting to strike. Last year, on November 30, the US embassy in Kabul issued the warning of an imminent strike by militants on Kabul. There have been deadly suicide attacks in Kabul, including the attack on a staff bus belonging to Tolo TV in which seven staff members lost their lives on the spot and 26 were injured. The state of civil strife has allowed Islamic State (IS) to enter Afghanistan, calling itself the Khorasan province of IS. Their major area of influence is in Nangarhar. IS has a defined leadership in Afghanistan and is a challenge both to the government and Afghan Taliban. IS in Afghanistan has all the sectarian footprints of its controlling group in the Middle East.

It is difficult to figure out how Afghan forces, short on men and material, will be able to effectively combat the Taliban. For 14 years, the US and NATO with a large number of troops, air power and surveillance equipment could not effectively hold any large part of Afghanistan. The US spent one trillion dollars in Afghanistan as part of the war on terror, the longest and most expensive war in modern history, leaving behind a war-scarred Afghanistan physically, economically and psychologically — a shattered nation. Thousands of Afghans have lost their lives and millions have become refugees. In December 2014, a formal ceremony of withdrawal from Afghanistan by US and NATO troops was held in a rather low-key manner in Kabul to avoid any attack from the militants. This manner of departure of NATO troops was an indicator of how much chaos and strife is being left behind, and a pointer to coming events; there was nothing to celebrate for the Afghan nation.

How did things come to this stage? There are no simple or single line answers. Perhaps one possible explanation is how events unfolded in Afghanistan in post-World War II events, concentrating for purpose of brevity only upon a rather brief period. From the close of the war King Zahir Shah, the ruler from 1933 to 1973, in his enthusiasm to build a modern Afghanistan, decided to invite both the US and the erstwhile USSR during the Cold War days. The two super powers started prestigious infrastructure projects. Many of these projects challenged the social and economic life of a society that had strong tribal bindings; a culture alien to the people was shaping up. The vast majority of the population started feeling alienated in the crony economic structure. In the ill-planned economic projects, especially in Helmand and other areas of southern Afghanistan, many people were dispossessed from their lands due to land development and irrigation projects. This led to unrest and political and social instability. In the early 1970s, riots erupted in Afghanistan, initially due to a draught and then issues of modernisation and poor governance started dominating. The riots resulted in a coup in 1973 by former Prime Minister (PM) Daud. King Zahir Shah, who was in Rome, abdicated. Afghan history then became one of coups, tyranny and assassinations, and was made worse by the Soviet invasion in 1979. Analysis of the events shows the present events of Afghanistan are a manifestation of many ill-conceived economic plans, many dictators and their ambitions imposing alien cultures that have all brought Afghanistan to this present state of violence and instability. Of course, extreme militant groups cannot take refuge behind the force of history and in turn inflict pain upon the people. All manner of solutions have been tried in Afghanistan. Large amounts of aid from the post-World War II era did not work. Then military interventions, first by the Soviet Union and then by NATO countries made the situation worse. No solution has worked to alleviate the pain of the people; they live under constant threat and under the fear of having to evacuate their homes once fighting starts in their areas.

Afghanistan eventually has a democratically elected government. The present elected Afghan government is making serious efforts to secure peace but is facing many adverse circumstances. A government managing an economically challenged country, damaged by war and civil strife, torn between different militias for over 35 years is not expected to do much better. There are issues of monetary support from foreign aid for budgetary support to pay salaries and maintain the security forces; much of the aid requirement is hard to obtain. This problem is compounded by public opinion in the west, which is not interested in funding wars and military campaigns in faraway countries. Europe itself is absorbed and exhausted by a crisis of historical proportions, of refuges and asylum seekers from the Middle East and North Africa, threatening Europe’s culture and social balance.

Yet there is hope and future for Afghanistan: the harbinger of hope and a future is democracy. In a recent interview for BBC, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani sent a message to Afghan asylum seekers in Europe, upon whom doors are being closed in Europe. He stated, “The future is Afghanistan.” The elected government in Afghanistan is besieged by many problems and is facing setbacks and threats to its existence, yet there still is a reason for hope because of democracy and the media. To make Afghan democracy work, democratic countries globally must realise their commitment to democracy, do their bit and provide Afghanistan with budgetary support and economic aid. Unfortunately, budgetary support is inadequate and many commitments rather evasive. If the democratic government falls in the face of current events, then all hope for a stable prosperous Afghanistan will fade, leaving only chaos in its tracks. It will be a global setback of historical proportions for peace, stability and democracy.

The writer is a former member of the police service of Pakistan. He can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com