Daily Times

The erstwhile Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on December 24, 1979, and remained there until February 15, 1989. In the bargain, the Soviet Union ended up losing its political identity and disintegrated for good, perhaps because the invasion was seen as a blatant violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty. Nearly all nations joined hands led by the US, and its allies, and supported Afghan Mujahedeen’s resistance. Pakistan not only played a frontline state against the Soviet’s occupation of Afghanistan but also became the training and logistics lifeline of the freedom struggle.

On the other hand, the US entered Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks, to fight Global War on Terror (GWOT). The US entry into Afghanistan was supported and legitimised by global powers and institutions. The US and NATO forces stayed in Afghanistan with full military presence for over 20 years and left on August 15, 2021, only to leave the war-ravaged country again to the same government led by the Taliban, which is still not recognised by the global community.

While the US was still looking for an excuse for its failures in Afghanistan, Russia decided to enter Ukraine, to extend its perimeters to block NATO forces on its door steps. Russia had been calling for years against the expansion of NATO, particularly against Ukraine joining the military alliance which is seen as a genuine security threat by Russians. It is evident now that Ukraine was Russia’s red line.

Pakistan not only played a frontline state against the Soviet’s occupation of Afghanistan but also became the training and logistics lifeline of the freedom struggle.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is now entering its third month, with large scale devastation and casualties. Nearly the entire western world is supporting Ukraine morally, militarily, and financially. On the other hand, the global economy has been hit hard due to this new war in Europe, primarily because Russia controls energy supplies to several European countries. Russia remains the biggest exporter of crude oil and earns nearly $123 billion a year. Moreover, Russia is not only a major supplier of just oil and gas, but also wheat, metals, and fertilizers, as well.

The US and other European partners have imposed compelling sanctions on Russia and its major exporting companies due to its imposed war on Ukraine. This has had serious implications on Russia’s economy and hence forced President Putin to insist on receiving Russian Rubles in exchange for its gas exports to European countries. After initial reluctance, “most of the gas importers have already opened their account in rubles with Gazprom,” he told a press conference. He said that Germany’s top gas importer had already paid in rubles. Like Italy, Germany is a massive consumer of Russian gas,” according to a Bloomberg report of May 11, 2022. Another report suggests, that “a total of twenty European companies have opened accounts, with another 14 clients asking for the paperwork needed to set them up.”

Moreover, both Russia and Ukraine are the biggest exporters of food grain to several countries across the globe. For instance, Egypt was the biggest importer of Ukrainian wheat last year alongside Lebanon and Pakistan. Ukraine produces about seven per cent of the world’s wheat. Ukraine also produces sunflowers, corn, soybeans, wheat and barley in large exportable quantities, particularly to North African countries.

Likewise, Russia produces and exports large quantities of wheat, sugar beets, milk, potatoes, cereals, and chicken. Moreover, several European countries entirely rely on the import of gas from Russia, including North Macedonia, Moldova, Belarus, Norway, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) report, “the top exports of Russia are Crude Petroleum ($74.4B), Refined Petroleum ($48B), Petroleum Gas ($19.7B), Gold ($18.7B), and Coal Briquettes ($14.5B), exporting mostly to China ($49.3B), United Kingdom ($25.3B), Netherlands ($22.5B), Belarus ($15.8B), and Germany ($14.2B).” In 2019 Russia accounted for 41% of the EU’s natural gas imports.

Historically, a prolonged military campaign usually proves counterproductive for the initiator. Vietnam War for the US, the first Afghan war for the Soviets, second Afghan war for the US are ample proof of this argument. Russia must not lose sight of history and avoid prolonging its Ukrainian campaign before it proves to be another Afghanistan for global power.

Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi is the author of ‘Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan’ and ‘South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace.’ He is presently working as Director (Peace and Conflict Studies) at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad, Pakistan. He can be contacted at: cass.thinkers@gmail.com

The writer is the author of the book ‘Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan’. He is presently working as the Director of the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS)