Daily Times

Pricewater-house-Cooper (PwC) published a report in 2017, anticipating that Pakistan’s “economy could become the 16th largest by 2050 based on its gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP).” The experts at PwC estimated Pakistan’s economy to reach a staggering $4.2 trillion by 2050 and placed the country among some of the world’s top emerging markets such as Egypt, Bangladesh, India, and more. “By 2050, Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada on PPP basis,” the London-based consultancy firm said in the report, titled, “The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050.”

According to the report’s other key findings, the global economy could more than double in size by 2050. Assuming generally growth-friendly policies, emerging markets would continue to fuel global economic expansion.

Back in 2017, it was encouraging to read that Pakistan’s economy had the potential to grow more than three times within the next three decades. However, considering the current political and economic scenario it may not be all gold and glitters for Pakistan’s economy. The bigger question is, have we missed the bus of economic progress amidst the political indifference and chaos? Or is there some hope for economic recovery? Also, what needs to be done to make get the economic wheel moving in a favourable direction?

Pakistan’s survival lies in breaking away from the tri-polar hegemonic society and moving to an economic system that promotes a dynamic society.

What actually should have happened in 2016, is the initiation of sustainable and effective investment in long-term projects including education, infrastructure, technology, and more. It was the time when Pakistan policymakers should have been devising long-term sustainable growth plans leveraging the diversified economies from around the world. Furthermore, this long-term sustainable growth plan should have been built on the more realistic need to develop political, economic, legal, and social institutions to generate and promote innovation and entrepreneurship, bring stability to the economy, and engage the rising number of young population.

Pakistan being a developing country with immense potential in its human resources, technology industry, agriculture, and SME industry always had the perfect opportunities to leverage the falling global trade, economic inequalities, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties by curbing internal security and political challenges. Yet the country’s leadership remained divided and indecisive over the years, pushing it into one of the toughest economic times in its history. Instead of taking necessary actions to attract Foreign Direct Investment to the country, we have continued to ignore the widening brain drain. In all actuality, Pakistan has been labelled as an emerging market for a long time now. Had our business and political elites united on an economic vision, today, we would have been successful in engaging with the world market, creating a window of opportunities for budding businesses. With a redefined focus on developing institutions, fostering social stability, and strengthening the macroeconomic fundamentals, we could have been at the forefront of one of the most competitive Asian economies.

However, all hope is not lost. Some positive economic indicators should give us hope and the country’s leadership the strength to swallow hard pills and take tough decisions. I believe we need to revisit the basics as economists, policymakers, and politicians ask ourselves what can we do to make Pakistan a more attractive business destination.

The central bank announced that remittances surpassed $3 billion for the first time in April 2022, with $3.1 billion in inflows. In April 2022, remittances increased by 11.2 per cent month-over-month and by 11.9 per cent year-over-year. In the first ten months of the fiscal year 2022, remittances increased 7.6 per cent to $26.1 billion, compared to the same period the previous year. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) that large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew 26.6 per cent year-on-year in March.

Other industries are showing positive indications such as the Organic Meat Company Ltd (TOMCL), a Pakistani meat processing company that confirmed receiving contracts worth $2.2 million from the Middle East.

These are promising signs and good numbers to take as the basis for policy directions and decision-making. All that is good is not lost and must be salvaged and rather built upon. I truly believe that it is time for the technocrats to be brought in, especially if the political leadership is avoiding taking tough decisions. Also, Pakistan’s business community, technocrats, and other policymakers must ask themselves, “What kind of society do we want to become, now that we are on the brink of economic crisis?”

I believe that we owe it to our future generations to become a flourishing society. Edmund Phelps, after analysing hundreds of humanity’s best thinkers from Aristotle to Rawls, concluded mass flourishing as the “broad involvement of people in innovation and creation.”

Thus, putting political indifferences aside, breaking the cycle of hegemonic political forces, rising above the idealization of personalities, and uniting for a single national economic agenda will serve as the very basis for the mass flourishing in Pakistan. There have to be sacrifices made for the greater good of the country. Pakistan’s survival lies in breaking away from the tri-polar hegemonic society that it has, unfortunately, become and moving to an economic system that promotes a dynamic society. This is where the mass flourishing will take place providing each person with the ability to engage, create, to take initiative

If not, we will give rise to public unrest, a casino economy driven by personal gains and motives, where Pakistan will stand as the only loser. Unity under a national economic vision is our only and perhaps the last stride towards economic revival.

The writer is a Special Advisor (Pakistan Institute of Management, Lahore operated under Federal Ministry of Industries and Production, Islamabad) and a Foreign Research Associate.