Daily Times

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a constant irritant for its opponents. Since the inception of CPEC, adversaries are putting efforts to sabotage the project. Pakistan, with the blessing of Allah, was able to defend the first phase and complete infrastructural projects. Enemies of CPEC could not absorb the success and thus, accelerated their efforts. With the launch of the second phase, we can observe a new wave of malicious propaganda and terrorist attacks on Chinese citizens. Although Pakistan erected a dynamic security mechanism during the first phase and protected the Chinese citizens and CPEC with great resolve, incidents like Karachi University and Dasu urge us to rethink security. As the present security framework was developed keeping in mind the first phase of CPEC, it cannot cater for the needs of the second phase which has its own dynamics.

Thus, there is a need for a new security policy and framework, which can cater for the demands of the second phase. Based on the analysis of the second phase and emerging security dynamics, the following recommendations can be considered by policymakers:

First of all, there is a need to comprehend the dynamics of fifth-generation warfare (FGW) and its relevance for the second phase. It is well-established fact that FGW involves multiple players and instruments. Our analysis shows that the major tools of FGW are manipulation of data, application of social media and systematically playing with emotions. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, social media has been categorised as a driving force of the FGW, which is not the case. It is only an instrument, which works on the shoulders of data manipulation and emotional intelligence.

Emotional intelligence is a critical element of FGW. It is the most lethal weapon as it works on all segments of society, without any discrimination of status, class, education, etc. It is apparent from the suicide attack at Karachi University. Data manipulation is another tool that has the potential to undermine the efforts of the state. Pakistan already faced the worst in the form of Bangladesh. China is also facing the worst form of data manipulation in the case of Xinjiang, where the Western world is using this trick to undermine China.

There is a consensus among many experts that the US and NATO have created a trap for Pakistan and China by withdrawing from Afghanistan.

It is alarming to note that the same strategy is being applied in recent attacks. Terrorists are trying to frame the state as an exploiter by presenting fake data. They are also playing with the emotions of people in the name of ethnicity, sub-nationalism, religion and class differences. Thus, the state needs to work on these areas. First of all, the state will have to ensure inclusiveness in the distribution of livelihood opportunities. Second, the state needs to create genuine data and reply with full force to manipulated data. For that purpose, the state needs to engage genuine think-tanks, not yes-sir think-tanks. Third, the state should also look for experts in emotional intelligence, who can help to mitigate the negative consequences of emotional intelligence. Fourth, Pakistan must recognise that in FGW economy does not mean only the size of GDP. It means livelihood opportunities and fair distribution of livelihood opportunities.

Second, Pakistan and China must join hands to map the regional adversaries and opponents of CPEC and Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI). The mapping should also look into the possibility and role of rival friends. Inclusion of rival friends is critical, as rival friends would be more dangerous than enemies if we ignore them. We can understand the importance of mapping rival friends from the recent tug-of-war over submarine contracts between the US, United Kingdom, Australia and France. They are strongly netted with each other through NATO and other alliances. They also have allied in the joint opposition to China and are working hand-in-hand to undermine China. However, for individual benefits, they do not hesitate to stab each other. For example, the US and the UK joined hands to snatch the submarine agreement of billions of dollars from France. They convinced Australia that they (the US and the UK) can give a better deal than France. Despite all the hue and cry by France, the US, the UK and Australia did not move an inch.

Third, Pakistan and China need to devise a joint strategy to work with Afghanistan. There is a consensus among many experts that the US and NATO have created a trap for Pakistan and China by withdrawing from Afghanistan. They wanted to create chaos in Afghanistan, which can spread to China and Pakistan. They were working on it for a long time. First, they provided breeding grounds for the Daesh and other terrorist organisations. They were given the chance to flourish freely, which has become a real-time threat to regional peace. President Hamid Karzai openly criticised the US for promoting Daesh in Afghanistan. Now, they are systematically pushing Afghanistan into hunger and poverty, which will destabilise the new government of the Taliban.

In a nutshell, they want to make Afghanistan a new Ukraine or Syria for China and Pakistan. It will serve a dual purpose. First, it will help them recruit innocent people for terrorist activities. Then, they will use these people to launch attacks on the Chinese people and the CPEC, and hinder the inclusion of Afghanistan in the CPEC and BRI. We know well that Afghanistan is central to connectivity with Central Asia. Second, they will engage Deash and other terrorist organisations to launch an attack in Xinjiang by playing with the emotions of Muslims.

Therefore, Pakistan and China should immediately launch joint efforts to counter future threats. Rather, it has already started to appear. In recent months, many times terrorists attacked Pakistan forces from the Afghan soil. Some separatists are also using the Afghan soil to launch an attack on CPEC and Chinese nationals. Thus, both countries should engage with the Taliban to help them avoid chaos. For that purpose, Pakistan and China should provide food and other necessities for the Afghan people. Second, both countries should start to take practical steps to extend CPEC to Afghanistan. It will help Afghanistan revive its economy and create decent livelihood opportunities, which will minimise or eliminate the chances of falling of common people into the terrorism trap.

Fourth, China and Pakistan should work to map the actors and drivers of the second phase of the CPEC. It is needed, as the second phase of the CPEC involves numerous and diverse stakeholders. Based on the mapping, a new security policy should create mechanisms for the inclusion of actors. It is suggested that the client and customer relationship, which was designed for the first phase, must be changed to a partnership. It is required in the face of FGW.

In conclusion, the new security policy can also take guidance from the idea of the Global Security Initiative (GSI). The GSI has all the ingredients, which can help draw a new security framework in accordance with the needs. Four pillars of the GSI- common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable-cover elements of traditional and non-traditional security challenges and offer sustainable solutions. It also provides a road map for the inclusiveness of security and cooperation mechanisms.

Thus, China and Pakistan can work together to devise a pilot GSI and implement it. It will be a win-win cooperation. It will help secure CPEC and create a model for the GSI, which can be replicated.

The writer is a political economist.