Daily Times

Russia’s policy towards the Taliban is quite different from what we had seen in the past. The Taliban is primarily a religious group and in the Cold War, religious groups in Afghanistan used to fight against the Soviets during their invasion. However, the current dynamics are quite changed and Moscow is closely in contact with the Taliban. For years, Moscow was hosting Taliban leadership to pave the way for their return to mainstream politics. However, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover has provided ease to Moscow on the one hand while on the other hand, they are sceptical about the future of Afghanistan.

From the post-World War II to the latter phase of the Sardar Daoud period, Russia’s relations with Afghanistan were quite close and friendly. However, when Sardar Daoud started challenging the Soviet interference in the country, relations between him and Moscow became strained and he was eventually overthrown and killed as the result of the Saur Revolution in April 1978. From April 1978 to December 1979, the situation remained very turbulent in Afghanistan Noor Muhammad Tarakai was killed as Hafeezullah Amin became the president who was eventually killed by the Soviets shortly after their invasion in late 1979.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan drew global attention due to the Cold War and the US support of the Mujahideen. Thousands of fighters were brought from different countries to fight against the Red Army in Afghanistan. The war against the Soviets was fought with religious fervour and the Soviets were presented as infidels. Though the war against the Soviets remained successful and the Red Army had to withdraw in 1989, a complex situation was left behind by the US who supported the Mujahideen and the Soviets who had invaded Afghanistan.

For years, Moscow was hosting Taliban leadership to pave the way for their return to mainstream politics.

The 1990s was the decade in which the Soviets supported non-state actors in Afghanistan against the Taliban. India, Iran and Russia were on the same page vis-à-vis supporting the Northern Alliance, an el bloc group to the Taliban. Since then, there was a huge trust deficit between the Taliban and Moscow. Even Russia supported the US invasion of Afghanistan following the September 11 incident. However, Mr Putin had asked President Bush that they would have to withdraw after a certain period provided Moscow did not want the long US presence in Afghanistan. Yet as the US-Afghan war unfolded, it went beyond the imagination of anyone by becoming the longest war in US history.

Nevertheless, during this time, Moscow-Taliban relations took a turn. There were many reasons: Moscow-Taliban convergence against the US; change in the Taliban behaviour; and the US-Russia tussle that widened in the new millennium when Russia resurged under President Putin. The weakening of the US-led forces in Afghanistan was a good move for Moscow as it was seeing it as a decline of the US global hegemony. Moscow was enjoying the situation where the US was observed as a global power in a multipolar system.

Similarly, the US-China tussle is also on the rise which provided for close cooperation and convergence of interests between Moscow and Beijing. Moscow saw that China is challenging the US which cut short its global clout and provided a space for Moscow in the global order. Likewise, the US failure in Afghanistan was also a failure of the Western democracy that dented the perception that western democracy is the best system in the world. Hence, it hinted that the West is declining.

On the contrary, Moscow is also concerned about the current turmoil in Afghanistan. Moscow is concerned about the spread of instability beyond the Afghanistan borders to Central Asia that will affect Russia. However, Russia at the same time has an opportunity to consolidate its position in Central Asia as a guarantor of peace. Russia has ruled out the Western presence in Central Asia for stabilizing the environment around Afghanistan.

Similarly, Russia is concerned about the growth of terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda, ISKP and other fundamentalist groups on the Afghan soil. Since the Taliban are in contact with the regional and international players in the last several years, Russia has realized that they will not allow any terrorist group on the Afghan soil that could threaten the Russian interests. In the Doha agreement too, the Taliban pledged not to allow the Afghan soil to be used against any state.

The Taliban takeover was not taken as an unpleasant move by Moscow. However, it wishes to have a broad-based government in Afghanistan in which each ethnic and political group has a representation. Earlier this month, the Afghanistan embassy in Moscow was handed over to the Taliban representatives. Since the West-Russia ties are extremely severe due to the Ukraine conflict, Russia may go ahead to recognize the Taliban regime and may try to fill the gap the US left in Afghanistan.

The writer is a Senior Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. He tweets @yousafzaiZafar5.