Daily Times

Geopolitics of hate has been trumping the geo-economics of amity in the subcontinent due to a global resurgence of power politics. India’s hitching onto the strategic bandwagon of the United States, and the consequent pursuit of corporate dividends of a strategic policy has propelled her pell-mell in an adversarial black hole vis-à-vis the regional and neighbouring countries. The US regional surrogate allegations on India do no credit to her erstwhile ‘shining’ reputation of non-aligned liberalism inspired by the Gandhian pacifism and the Nehruvian centre-left politics. An obeisance to neocon polity externally and recourse to politics of exclusion internally has robbed India of an ability to fully reap the benefits of ‘peace dividends’ in South Asia.

Martin Van Creveld’s almost prophetic prognostications in his book, The Art of War, about a low-intensity conflict being the only kind of warfare possible between two nuclear-armed countries ring ominously true in the case of Pakistan and India. The ‘negative’ peace between the two nations therefore opens up enough space for a war by proxies that has the potential of getting escalated into a conventional war that might sound anachronistic in this age of nuclear deterrence. Indian Cold Start doctrine and proactive operations are some of the conceptual lineaments of a quest to find space for a conventional war under an exactly similar scenario.

The Pathankot attacks on the Indian Airbase are in fact a conflictual concomitant of a ‘Long War’ being fought by the two countries against the non-state actors as well as secessionists in an environment of cold peace featuring proxy warfare. The fourth generation warfare therefore finds its insidious niche in this era of nuclear deterrence, which has put paid to the concept of conventional wars, where both India and Pakistan have their vulnerabilities that can be exploited by terrorists. India is beset with active insurgencies/disturbances in 13 of its states besides fighting a losing battle with the rising tide of Hindutva that aims at ‘saffronisation’ of the secular social fabric of the country. In a viscerally hateful milieu spawned by the Hindu xenophobia and political exclusivism an aggrieved set of religious minorities acts as a match stick to the tinderbox of violent extremism.

The ideological affinity between the sub-nationalists fired by the religious as well as secular motivations has been augmented in this digital age of communications where geographical distances no longer act as bulwarks to their atavistic instincts. A broad overview of the strategic environment therefore is apposite to understand the motivations and rationales of attacks like the Pathankot one. Walter Russell Meade in his very insightful article, “The Return of Geopolitics” points towards a global resurgence of the power politics and new great game on Asian continent as a consequence of US-Chinese and Russo-EU rivalry. The status of India as a US regional surrogate to act as a countervailing force to China portends instability for the subcontinent wherein India is encouraged to assume an aggressive posture vis-à-vis other neighbouring countries. The rise of a hyper-nationalistic political leadership in India and the US goading has ushered in a geopolitics-driven era of interstate relations in the subcontinent.

The suppression of a cooperative paradigm has therefore resulted in a new age of proxy wars and aggressive posturing evidenced by the incendiary statements by Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The antagonistic standoff as a consequence of a sedulously nurtured confrontational policy gave space to the extremists on both sides of the Indo-pak border to reassert themselves to the exclusion of moderate voices. A wave of social, economic and political suppression against Kashmiris as well as Muslim minority in other parts of India unleashed divisive forces that threatened to undo the tenuous links that bound India in a federation. Ultimately, under the implacable pressure of Hindutva cultural violence the internal harmony seems to be wilting. The protests by the oppressed minorities and conscientious intelligentsia forced the world to take notice while the corporate interests of India goaded Indian political leadership to look for a relationship with Pakistan based on cooperative interaction. The bold Narendra Modi peace overtures and the effusive reciprocation by Pakistani leadership appeared to be promising a ‘Kantian peace’ in the subcontinent. The ‘peace Camelot’ however could not last long as the Pathankot attack put a spanner in the newly restored peace process, i.e. a comprehensive peace dialogue.

There are several conspiracy theories being bruited about the attacks but these seem to be the handiwork of some splinter extremist groups from amongst the old, known proscribed extremist organisations. The linkage of the attack with international terrorist groups such as ISIS (Daesh) can also not be ruled out. The important thing to note is the nature of the threat and its motivations. The sectarian terrorists based in Pakistan — the TTP, al-Qaeda and Daesh — all have their competing as well as complementing interests and motivations. In a well-known exposition of modern terrorist strategies and organisations,“The Spider and the Starfish,” the authors aver that modern terrorist organisations, fired with an ideological fervor to kill, operate as a starfish. As opposed to a spider that has a central nervous system the starfish has no central brain and its limbs can re-grow after being chopped off. The allegory is an allusion to the decentralised, cellular and independent nature of terrorist organisations that defy the logic of normal motivation for violent acts. In simple words therefore, there are elements that do not want peace and amity between the two neighbours and see benefits of a ‘creative disorder’ born out of a conflictual relationship between the two countries.

The range and sweep of non-state actors has made them capable of launching such lone wolf attacks that slake their nihilistic thirst. The attacks most probably have been launched by a disaffected terrorist group to keep the two countries embroiled in an adversarial relationship with an aim to dilute Pakistan’s singleminded pursuit of elimination of extremist violence. Such attacks bear a strong imprimatur of ideologically motivated killers fired with a fanatical belief about their cause. These acts cause destabilisation of the peace because of a long history of distrust between the two countries due to the presence of anti-peace lobbies that see continuance of strained relations beneficial to their interests. Pakistan and India would do well to unmask the myopia and misanthropy of such hate peddlers through adroit diplomacy and political sagacity. A statesmanship of a very high order is required on both sides of the border to demonstrate the sincerity towards the peace process to debunk the fear mongering and conspiracy theories.

The geopolitics of hate promising a new age of strife and discord thrive on an international diplomatic environment shaped by the dominant global powers’ interests. Instead of allowing their territory to be the turf of a new Great Game the two countries need to halt the sepulchral shadow of life-sapping, cloak and dagger proxy wars. It is time the two countries stood up to challenge the rise of geopolitics at the expense of geo-economics displaying their much touted millennial wisdom rooted in a civilisation that once inspired all that is best in the human repertoire of ethics and politics.

The writer is a former brigadier and a current Ph.D scholar in Peace and Conflict Studies at NUST