Daily Times

Crude oil futures marked the first weekly gain of the current month as supply deficit took centre stage with the European Union (EU) considering a potential curb on Russian oil imports.

Oil prices notched a weekly gain of around 9 percent after going down for two back-to-back weeks. Brent, the international benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, jumped by $8.92 (+8.68 percent) to $111.70 from $102.78 on a week-on-week (WoW) basis. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main oil benchmark for North America, went up by $8.69 a barrel (+8.84 percent) to $106.95 from $98.26 on a weekly basis.

The price for Opec Basket jumped marginally from $100.12 to $106.07 on a week-on-week basis, showing an increase of $5.95 (+5.94 percent). The OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of Saharan Blend, Girassol, Djeno, Zafiro, Rabi Light, Iran Heavy, Basra Light, Kuwait Export, Es Sider, Bonny Light, Arab Light, Murban and Merey.

The price of Russian Sokol surged by $10.02 (+10.87 percent) to $102.20 from $92.18 on WoW basis. Similarly, Arab Light prices witnessed an increase of $11.07 (+10.48 percent) to reach $116.64 from $105.58 a barrel on a weekly basis.

This massive surge in oil prices will hit consumers hard as data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics showed that the import bill of oil increased by over 96.09 percent to $14.81 billion during the first nine months of 2021-22 from $7.55 billion over the corresponding months of last fiscal year. Further breakup showed that the import of petroleum products went up by 111.45 percent in value and 20.05 percent in quantity. Crude oil imports rose by 82.25 percent in value and 3.50 percent in quantity during the period under review.

The EU is edging close to cutting Russian oil imports in a phased manner that will give Germany and others time to line up alternative suppliers for their energy needs. Russia’s oil supply is expected to decline further amid sanctions by the US and its allies as Moscow continues its military offensive in Ukraine, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). So far in April, about 700,000 barrels per day of production has been shut-in and losses are likely to grow to 1.5 million bpd for the entire month.

From May onwards, close to 3 million bpd of Russian production could be offline due to international sanctions and as a widening customer-driven embargo comes into full force, the IEA said last week. The gradual ban on Russian oil imports will be adding more tightening pressure to oil markets.

Russia is the world’s second-largest energy exporter. It accounts for about 10 percent of the world’s energy output, including 17 percent of its natural gas and 12 percent of its oil. The US and UK have already banned Russian oil imports.

The oil market has seen tumultuous trading since Russia’s war in Ukraine started in late February. Volatility in crude prices during the past few weeks has been at the highest level since June 2020.