Daily Times

Pakistan’s Security Problems and Challenges in the Next Decade

Edited By: Salma Malik

Publisher: Centre of International Strategic Studies and NUST Press

In the past decade and a half, Pakistan’s security problems have been critically and overly analysed by various scholars that are not of Pakistani origin. The prognosis in almost all cases has been that Pakistan is a failing state rapidly moving towards self-destruction. It is time the prognosis changed to reflect the reality of Pakistan — a survivor story. For the first time, several Pakistani scholars have come together to chart out the challenges they foresee Pakistan will face in the coming decade given the extreme nature of its security problems in the past and the present.

The editor of this volume, Salma Malik, has put together a stellar list of academics, analysts and policymakers to share an all-Pakistani prognosis with us about Pakistan’s national identity issues and threat perceptions, its unique strategic culture, internal and external security challenges, the future of Pakistan’s extremely delicate civil-military relations, Pakistan’s drive towards sustainable economic development, and the linkage of Pakistan’s internal and external policy issues impacting national security. Contributors to this volume include: Dr Syed Rifaat Hussain, Ambassador (Retd) Riaz Muhammad Khan, Brigadier (Retd) Naeem Ahmad Salik, Afzal Ali Shigri, Dr Ilhan Niaz, Dr Vaqar Ahmed, Dr Moonis Ahmer, Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Bilal Zubair and Ambassador (Retd) Ali Sarwar Naqvi. The introductory chapter, conclusions and recommendations have been contributed by Salma Malik. The book is published by the Centre of International Strategic Studies and NUST Press.

The book begins by providing us an excellent historical overview of Pakistan’s ultimate quest for security and the genesis of its threat perceptions. Professor Dr Rifaat Hussain’s article is an outstanding commentary on Pakistan’s security problems and traces Pakistan’s arduous journey from countering external security threats in its formative years to countering internal security threats over the past several decades. Ambassador Riaz Mohammad Khan’s article boldly continues this thread of Pakistan’s doctrinal shift in threat perceptions from fighting external threats to internal threats suggesting that internal security threats require a domestic response, and since Pakistan does not face an existential security threat from outside anymore, a change in our security narrative is a must. He provides an overview of Pakistan’s geostrategic significance and how Pakistan can successfully leverage it to achieve its broader national security goals of strengthening defence, economics and development.

Afzal Ali Shigri’s commentary on Pakistan’s internal security parameters describes Pakistan’s internal security problems as an outcome of the geopolitics of the region. The upshot of this historical geopolitical mess is a Pakistan that inherited by default or design jihad enthusiasts in the absence of a comprehensive rehabilitation strategy transforming them over time into organised crime syndicates. The state overall has weakened according to the author due to “compromised court system, fractured structure of police, prosecution, prison, prohibition/rehabilitation coupled with ungovernable lawless areas” (p.108). The author suggests that the only way forward to deal with internal security problems is administrative restructuring of Pakistan’s tribal and semi-administered areas, absolutely zero political interference in the functioning of civilian law enforcement agencies, making National Counter Terrorism Authority functional, revamping the entire criminal justice system and relieving army of policing duties. This can only happen if overall governance indicators improve.

This book also provides us two excellent articles on the evolution of Pakistan’s strategic culture. According to Brigadier Salik, Pakistan’s strategic culture is uniquely shaped by its Islamic ideological foundations, its bitter historical experiences and its geo-political environment; however, it is not the most useful lens to understand Pakistan’s emerging security threats and for that one must have an understanding of realist/neo-realist and organisational theory perspectives. Dr Jaspal and Bilal also maintain in their appraisal of Pakistan’s strategic culture that it is characterised by distinct national identity, political pragmatism, historical inheritance and external security environment. Both these articles provide an excellent overview of how Pakistan’s history and ideology has influenced Pakistan’s strategic culture. Professor Dr Moonis Ahmer explores the linkages of internal and external policy issues on national security. He maintains that Pakistan has been a victim of bad governance, absence of rule of law, nepotism, violence and terrorism over a period of years challenging Pakistan’s national security.

The article by Dr Ilhan Niaz provides us an excellent overview of Pakistan’s civil-military relationship, its past, present and future. Dr Niaz has expertly dealt with the argument of relative political stability. The stability argument maintains that successive military coups have disrupted Pakistan’s democratic fabric over a period of years and therefore in order for democracy to flourish in Pakistan and for institutions to develop, some form of stability, free from the fear of military intervention is required. Some of Dr Niaz’s predictions for Pakistan’s civil-military relationship for the immediate term include his optimism that this current government is more than likely to complete its tenure without classical military intervention. However, military’s larger role in country’s internal policies will continue due to counter insurgency/terrorism operations. However, in the long run of 5-10 years, Dr Niaz does not seem optimistic about the stability of political system in Pakistan if politicisation and corruption continues, and political and economic reforms are not undertaken. Given which, military will be compelled to intervene to support new actors, giving way to new military-technocratic regime.

The article by Dr Vaqar Ahmed provides a roadmap towards sustainable economic development in Pakistan. Dr Ahmed’s commentary is on the political economy of missing reforms in Pakistan, and he attributes lack of social accountability to be the single most critical factor in maintaining the politico-economic status quo. The answer lies in changing the political narrative in Pakistan that is resisting change. Pakistan has huge economic potential but it lacks the political leadership to utilise that potential. Coupled with lack of visionary leadership is the capacity to develop state-level institutions that could design and implement policies for sustainable growth.

Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi’s penultimate article in this volume reflects on Pakistan’s identity and nationhood, making us think hard about issues we shy away from confronting. According to Ambassador Naqvi, Pakistan was born as a state without a nation and over a period of years while we may have developed into a nation, we still lack nationhood. As rightly pointed out by the author, we in Pakistan have confused nationhood with religion. Our Pakistan Studies textbooks have overlapped our national identity with our religious identity. As a result of this confluence, there are elements in Pakistan that believe that the state of Pakistan deserves no allegiance if one follows the precepts of Islam. The chaos that we are witnessing in Pakistan today is a result of this disregard for the State.

Last but not the least, the editor of this volume, Ms.Salma Malik, provides some conclusions and recommendations. The overall drift being that Pakistan needs to set its own house in order, deal with internal chaos, insurgency, terrorism and political instability if it wants to maintain credibility in the eyes of the global community. These broad based challenges require leadership. There is still hope for Pakistan. Each article in this book leads us to think to change status quo at home, change the ways of governance and learn lessons from history.

The reviewer is Director Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research at University of Lahore