Daily Times

Moody’s Investors Service, one of the foremost international credit rating agencies, has forecast a stable outlook for Pakistani banks and estimated the country’s GDP to grow between three and four per cent in this fiscal year, which is very welcome; given the circumstances. But it’s also warned of “significant uncertainty over policy continuity” amid rapidly falling foreign exchange reserves, which ought to sound alarm bells in Islamabad even before the new government has been able to start its work properly. And the agency is just as unsure as most people in the country about how the present administration is going to restart the stalled EFF (Extended Fund Facility) with the IMF because of doubts about the new setup’s longevity.

Clearly, the PTI is going to do all it can to throw a monkey wrench in the government’s attempts to kick start the economy. That’s very unfortunate because already the rupee has collapsed, the market has been haemorrhaging capital for a long time, the current account is exploding, and inflation is still rising. At such a time, to create a situation where the IMF program might stay stalled means that we’ll still be left with enough foreign exchange to cover only two weeks of imports. A piece of truly damaging news, indeed, especially if the rupee keeps falling and oil, etc, keep rising.

Predictably, PTI is calling for a fresh election. But ECP has already made it very clear why that is not possible and how it is, in large part, PTI’s own fault. So the best that can be done right now is for all parties to work together to stabilise the economy. After all, their ugly fights would also have to end if there were no economy left because then there would be no country left either and nothing to fight over. But, astonishingly, our political elite never finds any time from its slugfests to give such things much thought. Moody’s has raised a timely red flag. If Pakistanis don’t take advantage of it, they will have only themselves – their political leaders in this case – to blame. *