Daily Times

Gold price surged for the second week in a row after witnessing its highest weekly close since November 2020 in the preceding week, as geopolitical concerns centring on Russia have revived yellow metal’s demand as a safe haven.

Gold futures closed the week on a bullish note in the international market at $1,991.10 per ounce, gaining $18.20 (+0.92 percent) on a week-on-week basis amid risk sentiment, as Russia is showing no intention of de-escalating the conflict with Ukraine unless meeting its targets. The gold prices surged 4.44 percent in the preceding week.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat yellow metal in Pakistan, meanwhile, increased by 0.71 percent (+Rs800) to Rs114,200 from Rs113,400 during the last week. The Pakistani rupee depreciated 0.57 percent against the US dollar last week, which also impacted local gold prices negatively.

Gold started last week on a bullish gap and reclaimed the $2,000 level on Monday. With safe-haven flows continuing to dominate the financial markets, gold came in within a touching distance of all-time highs above $2,070 on Tuesday. The meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine, however, weighed heavily on the yellow metal and dragged it back below the $2,000 level psychological level.

Geopolitics is likely to remain the primary market driver next week too, as investors will remain focused on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and the risk perception is likely to continue to impact gold’s market valuation. However, any diplomatic development to cool down the war through table talks between Russia and Ukraine may increase appetite for riskier assets and will surely be detrimental for the safe-haven gold. The market action has always shown that gold is the go-to safe-haven asset but it’s also the one that’s being sold first when the mood improves.

All this is happening at a time when the US dollar’s strength is at a multi-year high as the US Federal Reserve has hinted at the possibility of a 25 basis points rate hike in the coming week. Another leg higher in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields can limit the yellow metal’s gains. Although uncertainty on the economic outlook and inflation has been heightened by the Russia-Ukraine war, the Fed is unlikely to surprise the markets with a double-dose (50bps) rate increase. The experts are of the view that the yellow metal will trade sideways this week. There is, however, a noticeable bullish shift in the one-month outlook with the average price target sitting above $2,000, they added.

From a technical perspective, gold’s near-term outlook is still bullish, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart sits well above 50 and the price holds way above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The level of resistance for gold during this week will be $2,000 (psychological level) and $2,010 (static level). On the flip side, the initial support level is located at $1,950 and if gold makes a daily close below this level, it could extend its downward slide towards $1,930.