Daily Times

As is customary for Pak-India talks, Foreign Minister S M Krishna’s visit to Islamabad did not move most in Pakistan and, perhaps, not in India. Notwithstanding the agreements about matters of secondary importance like visa liberalisation, trade, travel or cultural exchange — achievements wrongly overlooked by the general public as not substantive — no agreement was signed about issues of prime importance or more rightly of public importance like Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek or the water dispute. The public in general is always preoccupied about the zero-outcome of these talks and the intelligentsia keeps its expectations low. Taken at face value, there is pessimism here but a close observation of rapidly emerging new geostrategic dimensions reveals constraints and lures forcing the traditional rivals to settle for a normal relationship. The big picture shows that prospects for the Pak-India relationship are positive.

India on her part has learnt a lesson from history. Gone are the days when Congress leaders would refer to Pakistan as an estranged son of mother India bound to stage a comeback. After 65 years of hostility, the Indian establishment is quite cognizant of the fact that by now Pakistan is an undeniable reality and so it is useless and unnecessary to wait or attempt its extermination. The preposition that it has to deal with it (Pakistan) now seems digestible for India. The situation is more markedly and certainly so after the day Pakistan became a nuclear power. This realistic calculation of India has provided oxygen to Pakistan.

Along with that, the ‘big idea’ (attributed to Atal Bihari Vajpayee) is still in action. It tells Indian rulers that India cannot become an economic power or a South Asian tiger unless it is at durable peace with Pakistan. It prescribes India to try to engage Pakistan through sincere peace talks as a strategy far better than to wish its destruction. India views normalisation with Pakistan as a precondition for its emergence with the status of the Asian star and a responsible global actor. Its rivalry with Pakistan keeps her outlook Pakistan-centric, which retards her growth as a power.

The third factor alluring India to sincere negotiations is the new hope it finds in the positive, aspiring and more responsible response of both the democratic set up and civil society of Pakistan. In the past, the fragile civil society was not willing to befriend India and the successive governments of the military or its pawns were all negative on this front. Now civil society is stronger and more willing to forge friendship with India and the once all-powerful military is in the background. Therefore, the horizon is clear and India knows it.

On the Pakistan side, the most significant development is the subtle realisation that Kashmir is unattainable. Although on an official level, Pakistan keeps harping on it, on the societal level it is a dead issue. Individually, a Pakistani’s plate is full of his own problems; he is not in a position to care about Kashmir. The jihad in Kashmir is almost over; mujahideen who were there to ‘bleed India’ have disabused themselves of the ideology of jihad and have started returning home to begin a new life (stories related to the end of this jihad are brilliantly reported only by BBC Urdu Service). Hundreds of the mujahideen have left jihad complaining they did not get support from their hitherto benefactors. It is a great leap forward to normalisation.

Even more significant, in my opinion, is that Pakistan is considering normalisation on its eastern border a safety valve for the pressure that is increasingly building on its western border. The pressure is partly due to the Pak-India rivalry. It is intolerable for Pakistan to see India, its rival on the eastern border, encamp itself on its western border. Normalisation on its eastern border will allow Pakistan to see India in Afghanistan as a normal state, disabuse itself of the misperceptions about her presence there and stop seeing India standing behind Afghanistan in its relations with Pakistan. In other words, it will have a strong reason to cut out India from its calculation for the western border, which warrants greater attention with the course of time.

Besides that, the normalisation may set off peace on the road to Kabul. Afghanistan has unfortunately become a pawn on the chessboard of the two atomic powers of South Asia. The normalisation between the two powers will do away with their urge to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal matters, thereby affording it an opportunity to cure its injuries. It will come as a bonus to Pakistan, a state that has been bearing the brunt of the fallout of the Afghan wars.

In addition, Pakistan feels a strong urge to settle its external matters and conserve some energy for the internal deteriorating situation. That is the reason behind it being seemingly in haste for normalisation with India as is discernible from the official statements and editorials of the newspapers.

With the environment for peace talks positive, the onus is on the diplomats of the two countries to not only speed up the normalisation process but also immunise it from setbacks to proceed to a dispute resolution. That will be in accordance with the promising model of normalisation first and dispute resolution later in order to bring durable peace to the whole region.

The writer is freelance columnist. He can be contacted at khetranazk@gmail.com