Daily Times

President Asif Ali Zardari, who is also co-chairperson of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), was in Lahore last week. Presiding over a meeting of the PPP Parliamentarians and party office bearers in the provincial metropolis, he called upon them to get ready for the next general elections, which he said would be held on time. He made a similar statement earlier while addressing a meeting of the PPP Core Committee in Bilawal House, Karachi on September 2, calling 2012 “an election year”. PPP stalwarts like Interior Minister Rehman Malik and Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira too, through a number of statements, have assured that elections would be held on time and the PPP was ready to take part in them.

Yet, despite these assurances, one also hears a number of voices coming from different quarters expressing serious doubts on elections being held on time. The most vocal voice has come from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, whose senior leaders are reported to have expressed doubts about the intention of the present government to hold elections on time. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) has also joined the chorus by claiming that the PPP-led coalition government was using the recently promulgated Sindh Local Government Ordinance as an excuse for postponing the general elections.

The head of the Muslim League-Functional, Pir Sahib Pagara Syed Sibhgatullah Rashdi, sounded much more frank and categorical when he said in Lahore after holding talks with former prime minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani in Lahore early in September that he saw no possibility of elections being held on time in view of the current situation in Pakistan. He was referring to the fast deteriorating law and order situation in the country, insurgency in Balochistan, increasing incidents of sectarian violence and target killing in Karachi. Gilani concurred with this view by asserting before a group of media men that elections would be postponed if a clash between the institutions was not averted. He made this statement immediately after holding talks with Pir Pagara at the latter’s residence in Lahore.

Are the general elections due early next year being postponed? How real are the apprehensions being expressed by certain quarters regarding the possibility of delaying elections? Apparently, there are no signs that could show that the government was contemplating the extension of its tenure beyond the constitutionally mandated term of five years by delaying elections. On the contrary, the federal government, by winning the opposition’s consent on the mechanism to appoint the Chief Election Commissioner and install a caretaker set up during the interim period, has removed what could be the two major hurdles in the way of holding fair and free elections. The Election Commission has also completed its homework by finalising the electoral rolls. The nation, though, faced by serious challenges of terrorism, sectarian violence and a crumbling economy, does not seem confronted with a situation — internally or externally — that warrants the postponement of elections. If Iran could regularly hold elections during the war with Iraq, why should Pakistan shy away from such an exercise merely because it is grappling with the menace of terrorism? The majority of the political parties seem convinced that elections would be held on time, and are, thus, making necessary preparations, including entering into electoral alliances and seat adjustment arrangements with like-minded parties.

But as they say, where there is smoke there is fire. The sudden and growing talk about election postponement must have some solid ground to support it. In the last few weeks, there have been certain developments on the political horizon of the country, which may be construed as the source for persistent speculations about the polls’ postponement.

First, it was a move initiated by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement in the first week of August to convene an all-parties conference to evolve a national consensus on critical issues facing the country. For this purpose an MQM team led by Farooq Sattar met and held talks with opposition parties, including the JI. The opposition, however, termed it an attempt to delay the elections.

Second, the federal government’s over-enthusiastic pursuit of a separate province in the southern Punjab and President Zardari’s pledge that the Seraiki province would be created before the next general elections was also perceived as a move to find an excuse for postponing the elections.

Third, the promulgation of the Sindh Local Government Ordinance and President Zardari’s statement that local bodies elections in Sindh would be held before the general elections was, similarly, seen as yet another attempt to present a justification for the postponement of the elections. Fourth, the sudden spurt in countrywide ethnic, sectarian and political violence, especially the unstoppable killing spree in Karachi, Balochistan, and the target killing of Shias in the northern parts of the country, has also given rise to speculation that hidden forces, being unsure of securing ‘positive’ results, are trying to create a situation wherein the holding of peaceful, free and fair elections becomes impossible. The spiralling violence in Karachi, which has assumed a new dimension as a result of the target killing of a senior leader of the JI, is particularly a matter of serious concern.

Fifth, the continuing impasse between Pakistan and the US over the former’s role in Afghanistan’s endgame, especially the issue of the Haqqani network and the military operation in North Waziristan, looms large as a serious threat to the prospects of holding elections on time. Much depends upon the outcome of Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar’s Washington visit. But the gulf between Pakistan and the US over how to handle the Haqqani network has widened to such an extent that a common and joint approach to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table may be required.

For political parties, elections are like water for fish. All the political parties, therefore, would like to see elections being held on time. At present, there seems no reason why the government should mull over postponing the elections, especially when a historic opportunity awaits the ruling coalition to preside over a peaceful transition to a new democratic government. The talk about postponement looks more like an attempt at point scoring by the opposition rather than the existence of any plan by the government to delay the elections.

The writer is a professor of International Relations at Sargodha University. He can be reached at Rashid_khan192@yahoo.com