Daily Times

The Republican and Democratic conventions are over and each has sent a stark message to South Asia. Despite an ongoing war in Afghanistan, despite the looming civil war in Afghanistan after the US begins to reduce its footprint in Afghanistan, and despite the decades-long bloody conflict that has destabilised a vast swath of the region, the US has once again lost interest in Afghanistan. Moreover, as the US loses interest in Afghanistan, it will have wide repercussions in Pakistan.

The rhetoric at the Republican and Democratic conventions prior to a candidate’s nomination reflects the tone of the coming campaign. It also reflects the priorities of the parties. It was obvious that the war in Afghanistan or terrorism was not an urgent priority for Obama or Romney. The most important issue that has been nagging the country is the worry about the economy. That does not bode well for Pakistan’s generals.

There is a surreal disconnect between US actions in Afghanistan and Pakistan and how little interest is shown by the decision makers and the American public in a region where the US still remains mired in its longest war. War fatigue has set in with the American public. A lack of well-defined goals in Afghanistan has also made it difficult for the military-industrial-business (MIB) complex in the US to make a case for continuing this foreign intervention. Most likely, the next president will be accelerating troop reductions in Afghanistan well before the 2014 drawdown goal.

Pakistan’s generals have relied on geography, history, and regional conflicts to seek financial and military aid from the US for decades. However, the dynamics of shifting power and a complex realignment of national interests has created a new world and a new South Asia, and this does not bode well for Pakistan if the ruling elite remains mired in the past and fails to confront the new realities.

Despite the posturing and denial, the American empire has been in a steady decline. The emergence of different trading blocks, a shifting paradigm of economic models, outsourcing of jobs, reliance on foreign capital and debt for consumption and a corrupt, ossified political system that does not allow meaningful change and continues to perpetuate global-scale financial scandals one after the other has brought the US to a stage where it faces bankruptcy of ideas and the treasury. This is a dangerous state as declining empires rely more and more on the flexing of military muscle. The decline of the US ‘Empire’ will have negative repercussions for Pakistan and thus the Pakistani rulers need to make necessary adjustments.

Pakistan is close to outliving its usefulness to the US. The Pakistani army gained tremendously after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 by being the proxy for the US. However, after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the US quickly lost interest not only in Afghanistan, but also forgot its ally. That sense of déjà vu is about to become the reality for Pakistan’s corrupt elite who have become used to the good life that comes from dollars raining down from Washington, DC.

Winding down in Afghanistan does not mean that the MIB complex in the US will go into remission. Contrived enemies and monsters are needed by the MIB to perpetuate fear and insecurity about a constant state of war. Without the Saddams or ‘Islamic radicalism’, or ‘war on terror’ and such, it becomes impossible to justify spending close to a trillion dollars a year in military-related expenses, especially as funding for the much-needed public spending continues to be cut. And, Pakistan might just be the next bogeyman to justify US military expenditures. While Iran stands as a useful bogeyman right now, the unpredictability of the outcome of attacking an oil-rich country, supported by Russia and China, is keeping the US MIB complex from going down that road. However, Pakistan is even more attractive as the monster to scare the American public and give a tremendous boost to the US MIB complex. Pakistan is deeply unpopular, possesses nuclear weapons, has an image of a failing state, was harbouring Osama bin Laden; numerous terrorist attacks in the west have been connected to Pakistan’s hinterlands, and its own military has been found supporting and nurturing terrorist groups. Pakistan can easily justify a campaign of fear and insecurity and be turned into the US’s next enemy, ensuring continued profits to the MIB.

The prospects for Pakistan do not look good. Neighbouring Afghanistan is certain to go up in flames after the departure of the US military. A civil war looms in Afghanistan; there is no evidence that the Afghan army has the capability to maintain control once the Americans leave. Furthermore, the corrupt regime in Kabul has failed to create any democratic or physical infrastructure and a civil society. The internecine battles between various power blocks, all armed to the hilt, will be vicious until some sort of a political adjustment occurs in Afghanistan. The post-Soviet and pre-Taliban period in Afghanistan is an indicator of things to come in Afghanistan. Due to its connection with jihadis, Pakistan will not remain untouched by the coming quagmire. However, this time there will be no dollars or military hardware pouring in from the US and it will be an expensive and hazardous period to adjust to.

It is not fair to blame solely the US MIB complex for Pakistan’s dilemma. Pakistan’s crisis has been of its own making too. The biggest failure of Pakistan’s rulers was to continue to live in the past without looking at the present or future. Pakistani generals have failed to see the implications of the end of the Cold War and shifting global power dynamics. They continued to pursue Kashmir, support the Taliban, and seek the nebulous ‘strategic depth’ against India until the reputation of Pakistan was destroyed in all parts of the world and Pakistan became a synonym for radical jihadis. It is the single-minded obsession with Kashmir and India that caused the economic stagnation, weak infrastructure, energy crisis and a weak civilian government completely dominated by the military. It should be clear to Pakistan that reliance on conflicts to seek aid has been a dangerous proposition, leading to wars, destabilisation, stagnation of civil society, and misery for the citizenry.

The recent agreement with India on a liberal visa protocol is a ray of hope that a slow chipping away of ossified thinking might be happening in Pakistan. However, the Pakistani generals’ lavish perks and existence relies upon a permanent state of war with India. Thus, attempts to normalise relations with India might result in a Mumbai attack redux. However, it should be clear to Pakistan that the time is ripe to normalise relations with India and Afghanistan, as the road to peace in the region and economic revitalisation of South Asia relies on cooperation with neighbours. History has shown that obsessing over Kashmir or strategic depth and living in the past will only continue spilling of blood and a breakdown of civil society. Similarly, the option to seek allies who can finance a state of war for Pakistan does not exist anymore. The only alternatives left are to focus on peace and collaborative development of the region or self-destruction. It should not be difficult to make a choice out of the two.

The writer has a PhD from the Naval Postgraduate School/Centre for Homeland Defence and Security. The opinions expressed here are solely his personal ones