Daily Times

Gold price snapped the three-week winning streak after witnessing the level seen for the first time in 15 months as geopolitical concerns centring on Russia caused the two-way price moves.

Gold futures closed the week on a bearish note in the international market at $1,889 per ounce, shedding $10.20 (-0.54 percent) on a week-on-week basis, because the yellow metal retreated during the last two trading sessions after hitting the 15-month highs. News reports that Russia would be open to sit down and talk with the Ukrainian government, and US President Biden’s comments that the United States and NATO will not act militarily against Russia, increased appetite for riskier assets, to the detriment of safe-haven gold.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat yellow metal in Pakistan, meanwhile, decreased 0.56 percent to Rs106,400 from Rs107,000 during the last week. The Pakistani rupee depreciated 0.71 percent against the US dollar last week, which also impacted local gold prices negatively.

Geopolitics is likely to remain the primary market driver next week too. Gold fluctuated wildly throughout the week amid risk perception and following an impressive rally to its highest level since September 2020 at $1,974 on Thursday, the yellow metal started a downward slide. The market action showed that gold is the go-to safe-haven asset but it’s also the one that’s being sold first when the mood improves.

The West’s response to Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, eased fears over the negative implications of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy. The UK, EU and US announced a series of sanctions on Thursday but refrained from cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system while reiterating that it was an option that could be exercised. Furthermore, the Russian energy sector remained largely untouched. The slight positive tilt witnessed in risk sentiment and profit-taking forced gold to erase its gains.

In the coming week starting today (Monday), investors are likely to stay focused on geopolitical headlines. In case Russia reaffirms its intention to look for a diplomatic solution and refrains from advancing its troops early next week, gold is likely to face additional selling pressure. On the flip side, a prolonged military conflict with Russia’s intention to take over Kiev and additional sanctions from the West could support the precious metal.

Moreover, if the US Federal Reserve hints at the possibility of a 50 basis points rate hike in March, gold could start pushing lower. On the flip side, markets are currently pricing a very small chance of a double-dose hike next month and a dollar sell-off could be limited if any rate hike is delayed amid geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, gold’s near-term outlook is still bullish. The ascending trend line coming from early February stays intact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart sits above 50 and the price holds way above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs.

The initial support level is located at $1,870 and if gold makes a daily close below this level, it could extend its downward slide towards $1,850, which is a static level as well as 20-day simple moving average. On the upside, the first resistance awaits at $1,900 psychological level. If buyers manage to cross this resistance, the next static levels at $1,910 and $1,920 could be seen as next hurdles.