Even though there was no formal press talk after the marathon Imran Khan-Vladimir Putin meeting in Moscow, the exchange was still very important because, as Commerce Advisor Razzaq Dawood very rightly put it, “Pakistan needs regional connectivity” at the moment. PM Imran Khan must also be credited for handling the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine very well; first saying very clearly that Pakistan preferred non-alignment in the new multi-polar world that seems to be emerging, and then expressing regret over the conflict and cementing Islamabad’s position that all sorts of disputes are best settled at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield.
No deals were discussed or signed, not even a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), but there was clearly enough convergence of interest on using Russian gas to meet Pakistan’s needs, and a double coincidence of wants to back it, to get relevant ministries on both sides to work on it immediately. Besides, Russia is bound to scramble for fresh markets as US and European sanctions begin to bite, and Pakistan has positioned itself very nicely for such an obvious eventuality. The next logical step would be to build on these advances and enhance bilateral trade, which is worth less than $150 million now, implying plenty of potential upsides. That makes it a win-win situation for both sides.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will make life difficult for countries like Pakistan, though, especially since international financial markets are already in a tailspin and commodity prices are spiking all over again. Everybody knows what it is doing to oil prices but few people in Pakistan understand that Ukraine and Russia are also our two biggest suppliers of grain, which is also going to command a steep premium with the blockades and sanctions that this war is bringing. That will further stoke inflation and badly upset estimates and projections of both the finance ministry and state bank. All this makes whatever can be squeezed out of the Moscow exchange count for that much more. *
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