Daily Times

Almost one year ago, the Lahore convention of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) at the Minar-e-Pakistan captivated Lahorites. At the rally, Imran Khan appealed to the audience to think and act independently and yearn for a change.

Interestingly, certain veteran politicians belonging to other political parties also started thinking independently and welcomed the word ‘change’. Subsequently, they acted independently and joined the PTI. The entry of these heavyweight politicians edged out several politically lean party workers. Moreover, the opening wide of the PTI platform also made possible a to-and-fro movement of some politicians who joined the PTI one day and forsake it the next day. Over and above that, the PTI is sure of sweeping the 2013 general elections.

Generally speaking, Pakistani politicians are overly obsessed with the term ‘sweeping victory’ over their adversaries. In the post-1971 phase of politics, politicians have been dreaming of replicating the sweeping victory episode invoked by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. If the PTI is also dreaming of the same, no one should be surprised. Nevertheless, what is surprising about the PTI is that it is dreaming of a sweeping victory in the age of coalitions and partnerships. Secondly, either the PTI is shying away from participation or it is underperforming in the by-elections, but dreaming of a sweeping victory in the general elections. Thirdly, the sweeping victory made by Bhutto should be seen in the context of regional socialist advances, popularity of socialist slogans in developing countries and a stifled political domestic scene under the regimes of General Ayub Khan and General Yahya.

The modus operandi of the PTI to woo voters is analogous to that of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Stage demonstrations, boycott elections, choke streets and raise a hue and cry on an issue and get noticed. If not at the electoral booths, the JI makes its presence felt in the streets. The PTI toes the same line. The perceived policy of the PTI is to align with public sentiments against the ruling party. The PTI thinks that this strategy holds the potential to swell its ranks with workers and lift the party’s popularity graph. That actually has happened. The opinion polls conducted by various organisations have shown an upward popularity trend of the PTI — until recently. However, this popularity is not because of the PTI’s performance to provide any relief to the people but because of the high-pitched stances of the PTI against the sitting government, provincial or central, on one issue or another.

One can argue that the PTI should not be judged on the touchstone of performance, as it has never been in the corridors of power. That is true, but who dissuaded the PTI from participating in the 2008 elections? Reportedly, at his Model Town residence, Mian Nawaz Sharif spent almost three hours trying to persuade Imran Khan, Qazi Hussain Ahmed and other leaders to end the boycott and contest the elections on a joint platform. Sharif insisted that the boycott made sense only if the other political parties such as the PPP, Awami National Party (ANP) and Jamiat-i-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) also boycotted the elections. To the utter surprise of all, Khan replied that on his appeal, people would not come out to vote. At that time, Khan was being advised by General (retired) Hameed Gul. The question is, did people listen to Khan and not turn up for casting votes? Retrospectively, Khan was ill advised. Owing to his stubbornness, the nationalist parties in Balochistan could not take part in the elections. Now, they are also high and dry. On the contrary, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) contested the elections, sidelined the pro-General Musharraf political elements such as the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and denied Musharraf any opportunity to get his November 3 action indemnified through parliament. In fact, in 2008, the PTI squandered an important opportunity of making an electoral alliance with the PML-N on a joint platform and entering the power corridors to effect a change. The PML-N is now the main contender of the PTI in Punjab and has been making all efforts to keep the latter at bay. Recently, the PML-N has is also welcoming any breakaway faction of the PML-Q into its fold to enhance the chances of its electoral victory.

Khan now believes that the ‘tsunami’ launched by him will overturn huge ships such as the PML-N in Punjab and the ANP and JUI-F in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the two mainstays of his political ambitions. What is the guarantee that this time people will pay heed to his call and will come out to vote overwhelmingly for his party? Why would people do that? Has the PTI amassed anti-corruption credit? Has it become part of the process of recovering any looted public money? Merely sheer anti-corruption sloganeering cannot influence people. The ‘fight against corruption’ is an electoral agenda of almost all the political parties. How will people figure out the PTI’s electoral agenda as qualitatively better than those of the other political parties? The slogan of change or tsunami was apposite when General Musharraf was around and not when an elected parliament is functional.

The PTI is also over-relying on the youth to vote for it. There are now several other contenders for the youth vote bank. The PML-N has launched several schemes to lure the youth in Punjab. Musharraf’s party is also a competitor. The question is, can the youth overturn the mandate of mature voters? Numerically, the youth may create a difference but practically it cannot do that since in Pakistani society the wisdom of elders sways the younger.

The election of 2013 may prove the last chance for the PTI’s survival. The election will be a make-or-break episode for the PTI. Instead of dreaming of a sweeping victory, the PTI should strategise a gradual rise. If this time, the PTI wins 10 to 15 seats at the national level, the party should be content with that. The PTI should reckon a realistic total of success in order not to get disappointed and embarrassed afterwards.

The writer is a freelance columnist and can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com