India: will cabinet reshuffle bail out Singh government?

Author: Dr Rashid Ahmad Khan

Last month, the Union Government of India headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh carried out a massive cabinet reshuffle. In the process, 22 ministers took oath, 17 of them being new faces. Singh himself has said of the new cabinet that it is a combination of youth with experience and relevance of portfolios. Almost all commentators are of the view that the step has been taken with an eye on the next parliamentary elections due in summer 2014. Prime Minister Singh, whose government faces multiple challenges, has chosen a new team to navigate through the rough waters of Indian politics. Can the UPA-II government sail through comfortably, tiding over the rising waves of criticism for tolerating corruption, bad governance, spiralling prices of consumer goods, deterioration of economic conditions and growing disaffection among the coalition partners? At a huge public rally held on Sunday, November 4 at Ramlila Ground, New Delhi, the Congress leadership showed confidence that it could and would successfully meet all these challenges. Sonia Gandhi, President Congress, being the star speaker at the rally, stoutly defended the policies of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh including the controversial decision on allowing foreign companies to invest in the multi-sector retail market of India. She said that the UPA-II government did not need to be apologetic before the BJP-led opposition about this deal as she said, “Our conscience is clear and intentions good.” All the three main speakers, namely Congress President Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Secretary-General Rahul Gandhi at the Delhi rally recounted the achievements the UPA government claims to have achieved during its current term.

However, there is a widely shared perception in the country that the UPA-II has fared far worse than the UPA-I (2004-2009). Besides being riddled with corruption scams, the second term of the Singh government has been confronted with a number of domestic challenges from the very beginning. These challenges pertained to the slowdown in the economic growth rate and the fall of the rupee against the US dollar, dissensions in the coalition set up and defections of some allies. There were charges of corruption that targeted even the prime minister and the family of Congress President, Ms Gandhi, including the decision to enhance the prices of diesel and petroleum and opening up the retail market sector to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Some of these challenges had their origin in ills the global economy had been suffering from for the last more than half a decade, such as the 2008 financial crisis that hit the US and spread its tentacles to Europe and other parts of the globe. The global recession also hit India and was responsible for the economic slowdown. The Indian capital market stagnated. People lost confidence in the rupee and were interested more in buying gold and property than making investments in business. To prevent the downward slide of the economy, the Union government had to take unpopular decisions such as the raise in fuel prices and opening up the multi-layered retail market to foreign companies. The coalition government of Prime Minister Singh had to pay the political price of these decisions. An important ally — the Trinamool Congress of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Bannerjee, whose party has 19 MPs in the Lok Sabha — pulled out of the UPA. It was thought that Mamta’s exit would be followed by mass defections by other UPA components, particularly the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Andhra Pradesh, which had for some time been showing its extreme dissatisfaction over the attitude of the Union government.

But the prime minister, whose party leads the coalition but does not command a majority in the Lok Sabha, moved swiftly to remove the reservations of the NCP and stop the graph of its popularity from falling further in the important state. In the new Council of Ministers, Andhra Pradesh was given 10 ministries.

But the most important feature of the cabinet reshuffle is the infusion of new young blood to which Mr Singh has referred with pride in his statement after the swearing-in ceremony. In the opinion of a large number of observers, it reflects the growing influence of Rahul Gandhi, the son of Congress President Sonia Gandhi, in the decision-making process of the party. In a conscious and deliberate way, Rahul Gandhi is being given a much larger role in government and the Congress. Prime Minister Singh has already declared him the future leader of India. He along with his mother and Prime Minister Singh forms the trio that rules India today. At the Delhi public rally, which has been called by observers the Congress’s show of strength in the face of an aggressive opposition, Rahul Gandhi also spoke in an assertive manner, defending the policies of the UPA government during the last three and a half years. The cabinet reshuffle is soon to be followed by the reorganisation of the All-India Congress Committee (AICC). The restructuring of the AICC is certain to bring Rahul Gandhi’s nominees into the high-level party organ.

The cabinet reshuffle and offence-is-the best defence attitude of the Congress mean there is going to be a great deal of fireworks in Indian politics prior to the 2014 elections. The opposition and civil society activists like Arvind Kejiriwal are aiming to force the government to step down and call early elections. An influential voice has been added to this demand by the former COAS of the Indian Army, General (Retired) V K Singh, who in a recent statement has called for the dissolution of the Lok Sabha and holding of new elections. According to him, the present UPA government is promoting the interests of the corporate sector instead of the poor people of India. But neither the dissolution of parliament nor early elections are anywhere in sight. The Singh government, though badly battered by corruption allegations, the onslaught of the opposition and defections of allies seems to be firmly and confidently saddled in the seat of power. On the other hand, the opposition is divided. The main opposition party, the BJP faces a serious internal crisis as two of its national executive members have resigned after the party president Gadkari was accused of financial impropriety by the head of India Against Corruption (IAC) Arvind Kejiriwal.

Last month, the Union Government of India headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh carried out a massive cabinet reshuffle. In the process, 22 ministers took oath, 17 of them being new faces. Singh himself has said of the new cabinet that it is a combination of youth with experience and relevance of portfolios. Almost all commentators are of the view that the step has been taken with an eye on the next parliamentary elections due in summer 2014. Prime Minister Singh, whose government faces multiple challenges, has chosen a new team to navigate through the rough waters of Indian politics. Can the UPA-II government sail through comfortably, tiding over the rising waves of criticism for tolerating corruption, bad governance, spiralling prices of consumer goods, deterioration of economic conditions and growing disaffection among the coalition partners? At a huge public rally held on Sunday, November 4 at Ramlila Ground, New Delhi, the Congress leadership showed confidence that it could and would successfully meet all these challenges. Sonia Gandhi, President Congress, being the star speaker at the rally, stoutly defended the policies of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh including the controversial decision on allowing foreign companies to invest in the multi-sector retail market of India. She said that the UPA-II government did not need to be apologetic before the BJP-led opposition about this deal as she said, “Our conscience is clear and intentions good.” All the three main speakers, namely Congress President Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Secretary-General Rahul Gandhi at the Delhi rally recounted the achievements the UPA government claims to have achieved during its current term.

However, there is a widely shared perception in the country that the UPA-II has fared far worse than the UPA-I (2004-2009). Besides being riddled with corruption scams, the second term of the Singh government has been confronted with a number of domestic challenges from the very beginning. These challenges pertained to the slowdown in the economic growth rate and the fall of the rupee against the US dollar, dissensions in the coalition set up and defections of some allies. There were charges of corruption that targeted even the prime minister and the family of Congress President, Ms Gandhi, including the decision to enhance the prices of diesel and petroleum and opening up the retail market sector to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Some of these challenges had their origin in ills the global economy had been suffering from for the last more than half a decade, such as the 2008 financial crisis that hit the US and spread its tentacles to Europe and other parts of the globe. The global recession also hit India and was responsible for the economic slowdown. The Indian capital market stagnated. People lost confidence in the rupee and were interested more in buying gold and property than making investments in business. To prevent the downward slide of the economy, the Union government had to take unpopular decisions such as the raise in fuel prices and opening up the multi-layered retail market to foreign companies. The coalition government of Prime Minister Singh had to pay the political price of these decisions. An important ally — the Trinamool Congress of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Bannerjee, whose party has 19 MPs in the Lok Sabha — pulled out of the UPA. It was thought that Mamta’s exit would be followed by mass defections by other UPA comp

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