Daily Times

Since the US has warned that Russia is 70 per cent ready to invade and could overrun Kiev in a few days, debates and concerns have been triggered among analysts, political pundits, and experts about the prevalent situation. However, Russia has flouted any claim to invade Ukraine and told that its maneuvers are just for its vital security interest and blamed NATO for undermining regional security. But Ukraine is not on one page; on the first hand, they turn down any risk of invasion. On the other hand, they are preparing civilians for invasion. Here questions are if Russia does not plan to invade, why has it massed such a high number of soldiers on the Ukrainian border? Why are the US and NATO taking the invasion too seriously, if Ukraine turns down the possibility of an invasion? Is it really a tragedy in making? What will be its consequences?

Before answering these questions, let’s go through the history to better extrapolate the causes of this tinderbox.

Historically, Ukraine is one of the countries which got independence after a fragment of the Soviet. Later, Ukraine set apart its Russian legacy and forged compact ties with the west. Afterwards, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejected an association agreement with the European in favor of closer ties with Russia, which, as result, had embarked on protests and he was removed from power in 2014. In response, as some believe, Moscow had annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and burdened separatist rebellions for it who broke out in Ukraine’s east.

Then, the blame game started. Ukraine and the West blamed Russia for sending its troops and weapons to support the rebels, but Moscow defied these claims, instead chastised the US and its NATO allies for weapons and joint drills with Ukraine.

Coming to the recent situation, simply answering the questions, Russia is afraid of Ukraine’s appetency to join NATO, which Moscow claims is a redline, and concerns about the set up of NATO members near its border, which NATO members, as it assumes, will set military training centers that ultimately will give them a foothold in the region and will be a looming danger for Russia.

Russia is afraid of Ukraine’s appetency to join NATO, which Moscow claims is a redline.

To evade this, Russia, in December, had sent a security document to the US, which was seeking guarantees for halting NATO measures of the weapon system, that threatens Moscow in close vicinity to Russian territory. But Russian demands were nixed by the US and NATO. Consequently, as Russia concerns its security interest, it has deemed it necessary to place this humongous number of soldiers on the border, but from the USA and NATO it sounds like an imminent tragedy knocking at the door of Ukraine- US intelligence has even predicted a number of causalities, if Russia invades.

To assist Ukraine, Pentagon has put 8,500 US troops on standby for an Eastern deployment. To add this, Biden has commanded to deploy additional US troops to Poland, Romania, and Germany to substantiate America’s commitment to NATO’s eastern side amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine, since Poland borders both Russia and Ukraine, and Romania just borders Ukraine. Also, hundreds more infantry troops of the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to arrive at the Rzeszow Jasionka Airport, which is 56 miles away from Poland’s border with Ukraine. Besides, NATO is sending ships and jets. Since Ukraine is still not a member of NATO, the US and NATO soldiers cannot enter Ukraine to fight on their behalf.

Apart from these, Germany on its plans to send a field medical facility but reprobated supplying arms, even after the Ukraine embassy request of a list pertaining to missile defence system, tools for electronic warfare, night vision goggles, digital radios, radar stations, and military ambulances.

Apart from their assistance, Ukraine has started drills with civilians to train them for any possible invasion. In contrast, Olesksiy Reznokov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, viewed that the most realistic scenario could be an effort to destabilize Ukraine internally because the Kremlin dreams that they will be warmly welcomed on the streets of Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, or Lviv. But the reality differs. Acutally, this will not happen in full-scale aggression. And, It is no longer possible to seize administrative buildings, take advantage of the pro-soviet population like in 2014, so they need to be ready for it and fill all gaps.

In response, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov verbalized that their such maneuvers only added to an already tense atmosphere and the US is escalating tensions. Russia is watching such maneuvers with concerns. Also, it is constantly urging American partners to stop escalating tensions on the European continent and accuses US and NATO of toiling to contain Russia.

Moreover, there are various other allegations on Moscow that it is set to run a major nuclear weapon exercise in the coming weeks as a caution to NATO and deter it to intervene in the event of Putin invading Ukraine. To add, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO General Secretary, told that Russia has already deployed thousands of troops including Spetsnaz Special forces, along with Iskander missiles that can be tipped with nukes, fighter jets, and S-400 anti-aircraft system. Apart from this, NATO has alerted that Russia is messing with nuclear-capable missiles along with 30,000 troops in Belarus.

Furthermore, some analysts believe Moscow could move on to Ukraine to claim a quick, decisive victory and increase its power in future talks about NATO’s expansion and spheres of influence. However, some contrast in opinion and claim that NATO allies, exclusively US, are reluctant to expand their military footprints in the region and further jeopardize their relationship with Moscow.

Afterwards, China sided Russia in opposing further expansion by NATO and both called on NATO to abandon its ideological approach of Cold War.

After understanding the entire situation, one can come to know and can simply answer the question of the seriousness of the US and NATO to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that it is containing Russia more than assisting Ukraine, because the US and Russia are too old antagonists, who toil to contain each other or damage each other indirectly, if we further go through the suggested sanctions by US and NATO, if Russia invades, as they claim, which include hitting Russia financially by cutting Russia out of the SWIFT financial system; banning Russian gas pipeline in Europe, which accounts a robust revenue for Russia; and imposing export controls, potentially cutting Moscow off from the high tech that helps warplanes and passenger jets fly and powers smartphones, one can conclude that helping Ukraine can be a side purpose of the US and NATO but to contain Russia is a priority, using Ukraine as a tool for garnering its geopolitical goals.

In last, the conflict must be resolved diplomatically rather than by arms. The sovereignty of any country is essential to be run independently and efficiently according to the will of inhabitants of that particular country. No other country should intervene in the personal affairs of any country to just garner its geopolitical goals and endanger the lives of hundreds or thousands of locals. Intervening of big powers can result in the division of countries into blocs, and the ultimate result can be war, which leaves countries with an irreparable loss.

The writer is a lawyer in Karachi.