Daily Times

Come to think of it, the word ‘change’ is now being used, misused and shall I say abused to such an extent that it has really lost its significance. There is this hype that is being built, this narrative being peddled on the traditional and the social media that change is on its way. Or as the only so-called ‘kith and kin’ of this ‘change’, the one and only Imran Khan, has recently said, “Change is in its place. It’s no longer a thing of the future; it is being witnessed in the present.” The great Khan is banking on his youth vote bank, holding them at a high level for this so-called phenomenon.

Let’s just zoom into this overrated term. First and foremost to say is that out of 86.1 million registered voters, there is a significant number of young and first time voters, hence the tide will definitely turn in favour of Khan’s party is a bit of a stretch, as 49 million or so voters out of the above listed statistic come from the province of Punjab. That is approximately 57 percent of the entire population of registered voters. Hence, it is undoubtedly the ‘battleground province’, so to speak. Yet the way the system functions, in order to form a government the party forming a government in the National Assembly requires a majority.

There is this overly aggressive assumption that there will be a clean sweep and the youth, who have finally been woken up from their slumber by charismatic Khan, will flock to the polling stations; May 11 will change the course of our history. The narrative has been very cleverly crafted since October 30, 2011, through nothing other than the electronic media. The logical side of the viewer’s brain is being constantly challenged by messages of failure of the previous government and the pet word ‘corruption’ is being repeated ad nauseam. One would think that the Pakistani diaspora would be a bit seasoned, based on their exposure, but thanks to cable TV and internet, they are succumbing to this ‘psy-ops’ as well.

As they say, anything is possible in politics, but still to assume that what is being peddled as an ‘alternative option’ and ‘third force’ will help to form a government in the capital is farfetched. This assumption discounts most loyal voters who always vote along their respective party lines. In most cases, it expects them to ditch their parties and switch towards the only ‘party of change’.

Khan flip flops as usual. In his jalsas (rallies), he makes tall claims that his party will shatter all records and it will reach the assembly without any coalition, but often when grilled on the subject later retreats and says that he would prove to be a meaningful opposition. With that being said, one just wonders, if the overly charged and hyper-patriotic youth would prefer to see their demi-god on the opposition benches.

The fact of the matter is that Punjab is a fairly divided territory. No doubt Mr Khan’s rhetoric has dented the main player — the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) — but to assume that the PML-N will cede its influence and its voter base will desert it come May 11 is naïve, and perhaps childish. Similarly, the other major player, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which enjoys support in southern Punjab will be just a bystander is another very illogical stretch.

Foreign pundits are predicting a coalition government of the PML-N on the horizon, perhaps relatively similar to the one that finally completed its very turbulent five-year term this year. If that is the case, then the ‘social media experts’ are in for a major disappointment. The reason is fairly simple. The paradigm of change may shift at any other place quite rapidly, but in a society like Pakistan it requires a lot of time.

Going back to this over-repeated change mantra, what is expected to change? Speedy justice, accountability, proper taxation, economic opportunities, law and order, end of terror, end of hostilities with neighbours, etc? The list of issues is a bit longer and one can continue to add steadily, but the million dollar question that can be summed up in one word is: how?

There is a great deal that most of the passionate youth are ignoring. Electoral politics is very wretched. The party of so-called change has very few ‘electables’. When people vote, they look for candidates who they can relate to. The candidate has to canvass and participate in a campaign, which requires funds. Let me repeat: to campaign for the seat of an MNA it requires a sizeable amount. Next, the candidate has to sell a narrative to the likely voters and demonstrate their own track record. This is where the party of change will suffer the most. It is one thing to be a sportsman and other to be a philanthropist. But being an elected representative once in the past, and not being able to bring a single bill to the floor will be damning. As silly as it may sound, people, very often, vote from their hearts and not their heads. Because if they used the latter more often than the former, things would have been completely different in our sorry land. No wonder why it is always said that the more things change, the more they tend to remain the same.

The writer is a Pakistani-American mortgage banker. He blogs at http://dasghar.blogspot.com and can be reached at dasghar@aol.com He tweets at http://twitter.com/dasghar